2011 RECAP: SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING

It was a La Nina kind of year. Turbulent. Unpredictable. Disappointing. Dry. The stock market ended within a few points of where it began. The economy came off life support but stayed in the ICU. The ranks of the unemployed remained alarmingly swollen. In real estate, the pace of foreclosures and short sales continued unabated while values slid further south.

In Mammoth 303 condominiums changed hands. Nearly half of them were distressed sales: auctioned, owned by banks or sold short by lenders. That contrasts with 375 sales, in 2010 in which 38% were distressed. The median price of a condo sold in 2011 was $242,000 off 13.5% from 2010's median of  $280,000.

Home sales remained nearly steady at 70 transactions contrasting with 72 sold in 2010. The median price eased 9.2% to $567,500 from $625,000 in 2010. 29% of home sales were bank owned or short sales in 2011 compared with 39% in  2010.

Downward price pressure is not coming from a bloated inventory. Currently there are just 57 homes and 160 condos listed for sale in Mammoth. Well below historical norms. Rather values are being weighed down by distressed properties hitting the market at clearance prices.

On an upbeat note, the Fed's January 11, Beige Book had an opptimistic report on commercial real estate, leading commentator Phil Davis to exclaim, "It is very possible we are finally seeing a bottom." He went on to say that the "Fed and Administration are now looking to concentrate their firepower on residential real estate." Calling it "the last major drag on the economy."

Interest rates on conforming 30 year fixed rate loans dipped below 4 % last week, to a new 40 year low.

WHITE CHRISTMAS?

Eagle Base

It was a post Thanksgiving storm like the other recent fronts. Dry and cold. Since early October's 18 inch snow Mammoth had accumulated less than a foot. The difference this time was the hostile wind--clocked at over 150 mph on the Mountain-- careening out of the north accelerated by the eggbeater of counter spinning high and a low pressure systems in upper Nevada.

My roof started coming apart at 11:00. An awful hammering above our bedroom like some twilight zone monster chopping through the rafters. I bundled up and circled the house with a flashlight. One of the 24 foot long interlocking steel panels had torn loose at the eve and was clapping against the roof sheeting. I'd thought about tightening the screws this summer, after all it had been 20 years, but never got around to it. Now, I imagined one panel after the other peeling off like a deck of playing cards and tearing through the neighborhood .

Canyon Lodge

I rounded up my wife and we wrastled our 24 foot aluminum extension ladder through the wind and stuck it tentatively in the glacial remnants of our last snow. The ladder swayed in the breeze as we ran it up.

"This is crazy," Barbara said fighting  to keep the ladder from skating off the sloping frozen ground and into our neighbor  Bob's house. Nothing doing anyway. We were one rung short of the roof line. We retreated to the garage and swapped for a shorter ladder.

Things weren't much more secure from the second floor deck as I stood on a high rung and leaned over the roof to replace the loose screws. By tipping the ladder onto one leg and underclinging the front eve I could just reach the last screw with my electric drill. Barbara was whimpering on the snow dusted deck. "This isn't worth dying for." I got in three good screws.

Main Lodge

Back in bed all was quiet at first. I'd get a roofer out in the morning. Then after less than 30 minutes kerwhap, whap. Horrible, metallic, like the Blitz. Sleep was futile. Barb withdrew to a downstairs bedroom. I went out to survey the situation. My 2 inch screws had all pulled and the upwind interlocking seam had lifted, zippering all the way to the ridge. The panel was flapping like an outhouse door. It was only a matter of time before it cut loose.

Here's the thing about metal roofs. The sheets are customized for length and color. A replacement could take weeks to make. I lay awake listening for the inevitable ricochet of my roof panel caroming down the street, resolved to chase after it and drag it back to the garage.

When my neighbor called at 9:00 I'd been asleep for about two hours. The wind had slackened and the panel was still flapping. I called Mike Kenney Roofing. Within 45 minutes Mike's crew, tethered on opposite sides of the roof, had set things to right. Hold the wind, I'll take 40 feet of snow.

Crews at Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort have been furiously making snow over the past weeks. From most reports the skiing is good. Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle are scheduled to be open by December 14th!

MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE: Third Quarter Results

After an early October snow storm Mammoth has been granted a reprieve. An interlude of quiet grace. Gilded low angled light sets the countryside aglow. Temperatures arc into the 70's. Aspens and willows, cottonwoods and birches turn out in luminescent golds and shocking reds.

Fishing, by some accounts, has gone off, like a pre-holiday sale. One local tells of bolting down highway 395 on his lunch break, clomping in waders through a mile of boggy meadow to a Crowley Lake glory hole, making two casts, catching and releasing a 23 inch broad girthed 5 pound rainbow and returning to work without anyone being the wiser.

It's a swell time to be in Mammoth.

It's not a bad time to be looking for real estate either. Mortgage rates hover near 4%. Sellers are eager to move on before the real snow hits, and marked down prices, paced by short sales and REOs, haven't looked this cheap since, well, since 2001. For instance, one lucky Mammoth Realty Group client snapped up an 1849, 4 bedroom/3 bath condo recently for the prehistoric price of $380,000.

80 condos changed hands in the third quarter this year, up 11% from 2010's third quarter. The median price eased 16.6% to $223,000 from the same period in 2010. Bank and developer negotiated transactions accounted for 55% of sales while just 17.5% of the current 215 active condo listings are short sales, auction offerings or bank owned.

20 homes sold in the third quarter, a 150% increase over last year, leaving just 66 homes actively listed. The median price slid 10% to $530,000. REOs and short sales made up 27% of sales and constitute just 10.5% of current single family listings.

If you hurry you may still catch a bit of Mammoth's Fall glory and if your even luckier you might snag a piece of Mammoth real estate. For the latest listings please contact me at: dphillips.dpbp@verizon.net.

2 FEET ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN!

An early October front deposited up to 2 feet of snow on the slopes of Mammoth Mountain. Portent of an early winter? According to most weathermen we can expect warm temperatures right up to November. It's beautiful here now and the aspens are just starting to turn. Fishing's great. Cycling's great. Town is quiet. It's locals favorite time of the year.

OCTOBER NEWSLETTER

MORTGAGE RATES HIT RECORD LOWS

With housing in a 5 year swoon some observers are looking to this week's record low mortgage rates to boost Mammoth's real estate market. This morning Doug Magit, with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, reported a 4.125% fixed interest rate for 30 year Fannie Mae conforming mortgages on primary or second home loans. These rates reflect a 20% down payment for single family homes and 25% down for condos. Both loans were calculated  with .25 origination points.

By contrast, 10 years ago these same loans were pegged at around 7% interest with 1 origination  point. When the market peaked in 2007 rates were still about 2% higher than they are today.

With many economists predicting inflation to accelerate in the next few years, and with some Mammoth Lakes real estate selling at an appealing 40% discount from 2007's highs, tying up a fixed rate loan at today's rates and paying it back with cheaper inflated dollars down the road is looking increasingly attractive to investors.

To be sure qualifying standards have tightened up since the 2008 financial crisis. There are no more "liar's" stated income loans and credit scores need to be a sterling 740 or higher. Further a nearly mandatory 20-25% down payment replaces the low and zero down loans so popular just a few years ago. But, for those who meet these requirements a thorough examination of today's opportunities is warranted.

Find out what kind of loan you qualify for by following the link to Doug Magit's website then give me a call for an up to date list of Mammoth's best real estate buys.

MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE: REO SALES DRIVE RESULTS IN THE FIRST HALF

Nearly 50% of condos sold in the first half of  2011 were bank owned properties (REO's), or short sale listings, reflecting a continuation of the bargain shopping evident in the first quarter of 2011.

The median sold price for condos eased to $245,000 from $313,000 for the same period last year, while sales slid to 141 units from last year's 158 a possible reflection on Mammoth's record setting winter. Listing inventories remain subdued at just 226 condos including 13 Westin Monache suites being auctioned by the developer, Intrawest.

The weather was also a likely factor in lower sales figures for homes. Just 31 units sold in the first half of 2011 down from 40 homes sold in last year's first half.. The median price of a home sold in the first half of 2011 moderated to $680,000 from 2010's median of $723,250. REO's and short sales comprised just 26% of the sold market compared with 42.5% for the same period last year. Of the 68 active home listings at the end of the 1st half, 8 were short sales or REO's.

Continued weakness in the housing markets has produced pessimism to rival the euphoria that propelled housing to record heights in 2006. In such a climate it's easy to forget that markets are cyclical. Only the timing is uncertain. Warren Buffet in a recent Bloomberg interview predicted a strong recovery in housing in the next two to three years. Indeed, home builders are projected to build over 700,000 new units this year, below historic levels yet higher than the approximately 500,000 homes constructed a year ago.

"Be bold when others are fearful," has been a guiding investment philosophy for the Oracle of Omaha. Good advice too for anyone contemplating the bargain pricies of Mammoth real estate.

FIRST QUARTER RESULTS REVEAL BARGAIN SHOPPERS

Prices continued to moderate in the first quarter of 2011. The median price for a sold condo for the period was $222,500 off 14% from the previous quarter and down 23% from the first quarter of 2010.

78 condos changed hands compared with 87 a year ago and the 141 condos sold in the final quarter of 2010. Bank owned (REO) and short sale listings made up nearly 50% of all condo closings in the first quarter of this year, an increase of slightly less than 10% from the year ago period.

Home sales totaled 11 in the first quarter of 2011, down from 17 sold in the same quarter last year. The median price of a sold home was $765,000, just $5000 off 2010's first quarter median but up sharply from the $649,000 median price of homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Only 2 homes transacted in this year's first quarter belonged to banks or were sold short compared with 40% of homes sold in the first quarter of 2010 and 58% in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile price pressure is not coming from an oversupply as listing inventories remain fairly stable. There are 50 homes currently on the market and 203 condos, including 17 bank owned and 27 short sale listings. Rather, price pressure is coming from the distressed sector—REO's and short sales.

THE APRIL PHILLIPS FLASH

APRIL SNOWFALL NUDGES MAMMOTH TOTALS HIGHER

A cold April storm dropped another 18 inches of snow on Mammoth Mountain last week pushing this season's already record setting snowfall further into unseen territory. As of April 12, the Mountain was reporting 624 total inches of snow for the season and has already announced the lifts will keep running until July 4th. Plan on a ski-bike-golf triathlon sometime in June.