Have real estate values in Mammoth turned the corner? Are foreclosures drying up? Buyers and Sellers facing the old buy, sell, or hold conundrum should take note of the following year to date sales and listing figures. Since January 1st, 165 condos have sold or are in escrow (291 sold in all of '09). Of those 29 were REO's (lender owned) and another 37 were short sales–40% of this year's total. 40 homes have gone into escrow or sold since the first of the year (65 homes sold in '09). 8 were REO's and 8 were short sales, also 40% of the total.
The median price of sold condos edged up in the first 4 months to $328,000 from $325,000 last year, a statistical wash. While the median price of homes sold this year eased to $731,000 from 2009's median of $799,567. That's an 8.5% drop. Although median prices are a coarse market metric especially in a small sample, it's fair to say that home prices are still slipping while condo values are stabilizing.
Where do we go from here? Of the 175 condos currently for sale, just 5 are REO's and 27 are short sale listings. 66 homes are on the market and only 4 are REO's or short sale listings. Does this mean that the flood of distressed properties has abated? Any slowing would be good news for Mammoth property owners and portend firming prices, but the picture is still not entirely clear.
Barclays Capital in New York calculated that as of the end of February 4.6 million homeowners nationwide were 90 days late on their mortgage payments according to an April 28 online Wall Street Journal report. But the experts can't seem to agree on how many of those delinquent home loans will translate into foreclosures or short sales. Barclays thinks 1.6 million this year and in 2011, and another 1.5 million in 2012.
Mammoth with its limited private real estate base is a unique market and may be somewhat immune to national foreclosure trends, but Buyers still need to shop smart. And if you are a Seller, listen to your REALTOR® when it comes to setting an asking price. We're selling properties priced right, but set your sights too high and you may end up chasing the market down.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
MAMMOTH BOASTS A 15 FOOT BASE
Mammoth Mountain has recorded 515 inches of snowfall this season, the most since the record setting 578 inch 2005-2006 season. The average annual snowfall since 1969 is 342.5 inches and this winter topped the averages for every month except November. Although Canyon Lodge and Eagle Express will be closing after this weekend the Mountain recently announced that, with a 15 foot base, operations at the Main Lodge would continue through the Fourth of July. So don't put those skis away just yet.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Federal and State Home Buyers Tax Credits
The popular Federal first time home buyer's tax credit is due to expire soon. To qualify for as much as $8000 in tax credits, buyers of principal residences must open valid escrows by the end of April and close the purchase by the end of June.
A buyer is eligible for the full credit (the lower of 10% of the purchase price or $8000) if the home being acquired is their first in the last three years. A smaller credit of up to $6500 is available to those who've owned a home five out of the last eight years. Purchase prices must be below $800,000 and buyer incomes can not exceed $250,000 per couple or $125,000 for individuals. There's a nice synopsis on the National Association of Homebuilders site. And be sure to talk with your accountant.
In more good news for home buyers Governor Schwarzenegger was expected to sign a bill authorizing credits for Californians buying their first home. The credit would apply to new or existing homes purchased between May 1, 2010 and the end of the year or who enter into a purchase contract on or before December 31, 2010 and close on the transaction by August 1, 2011. The credit is the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000. The credit will be doled out over three consecutive years in equal amounts. California requires buyers to live in their new primary residence for 2 years (the Federal requirement is 3 years). Again, talk with your tax man about the details of the new California program. Click the link for a C.A.R. side by side comparison of state and Federal plans. And talk to me about qualifying homes in Mammoth!
A buyer is eligible for the full credit (the lower of 10% of the purchase price or $8000) if the home being acquired is their first in the last three years. A smaller credit of up to $6500 is available to those who've owned a home five out of the last eight years. Purchase prices must be below $800,000 and buyer incomes can not exceed $250,000 per couple or $125,000 for individuals. There's a nice synopsis on the National Association of Homebuilders site. And be sure to talk with your accountant.
In more good news for home buyers Governor Schwarzenegger was expected to sign a bill authorizing credits for Californians buying their first home. The credit would apply to new or existing homes purchased between May 1, 2010 and the end of the year or who enter into a purchase contract on or before December 31, 2010 and close on the transaction by August 1, 2011. The credit is the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000. The credit will be doled out over three consecutive years in equal amounts. California requires buyers to live in their new primary residence for 2 years (the Federal requirement is 3 years). Again, talk with your tax man about the details of the new California program. Click the link for a C.A.R. side by side comparison of state and Federal plans. And talk to me about qualifying homes in Mammoth!
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
THEY'RE BAA-AACK.
It's the return of the Kool-Aid drinkers. The starry eyed marketeers. Yes, the fractionals.
Never mind that Mammoth has been a graveyard for every "fractional" ownership development since, well, forever. Tyvek paper flaps in the breeze on unfinished fractional homes at Talus on the 10th fairway at Sierra Star. Tanavista, 45 units at The Village pared into "value priced" quarter share fractionals, is still nothing but dirt. It's sales team, once armed with high priced brochures, architectural renderings, and reservation instruments quietly scurried out of town after but a few month's in 2007. Altis, visioned as 24 exclusive slopeside townhomes—fractionalized into 1/7th's priced from the mid $500's—parachuted marketing hot shots in (from where, Tahoe?) just as real estate was poised for it's black diamond plunge. Proud Altis has been reduced to a pair of wholly owned duplexes. And now 80/50, near the Village Gondola, which has been operating on the thin vapor of 54 sold fractions--out of 224--since it first rolled out to much hoopla in 2006, is back.
I know it's back because iStar Financial, the new owner, treated me to lunch. Matt Toomey, the highly regarded chef at the highly regarded Whoa Nellie Deli in Lee Vining, served local agents ceviche, fish tacos, sliders and ceasar salad in one of 80/50's 3 bedroom "residences". Reminded me of the old days. Back when the Ritz team tried to convince us over lamb chops and potatoes lyonnaise that despite tumbling real estate values the Ritz was a different product—uncompromised quality—with a different clientele—rich folk willing to pay the $1400/s.f. tariff. Indeed, the Ritz team was freshly returned from a Southern California blitz where they'd collected another 30 reservations! Reservations from aristocrats begging to be unburdened of their surfeit of cash. The Ritz property was foreclosed on two years later. Pass the chops.
Despite the familiar treats, the 80/50 presentation felt different. It was a somewhat staid affair. Katie Morris representing, iStar Financial, was pregnant and resolute. She and her "dream team" of managers and sales staff would persevere to the end. iStar had the financial clout—38 million square feet of commercial real estate, $12 billion in assets—to see this through. It was a far cry from the Amway-like cheerleading at the original launch where glassy eyed salesfolk got so pumped up on Kool-Aid and testimonials they were ready to jump off the roof supported by nothing but talking points (some did and spent time in veritable traction).
After lunch Elizabeth McGuire, 80/50's sales team leader, gave us a tour. The sun shone brilliantly on the three steamy roof top spas. The March air was crisp and clear. Below us a private sky bridge spanned to the Village Gondola. Inside chromed exercise equipment stood idle, poised for guests. Later the valet smiled and waved as we drove off with our packets of marketing tools.
Back at my office I practiced batting away objections from hypothetical buyers and realized that no one at the luncheon had discussed financials. Try as I would one number kept returning like a meat bee to a bar-be-que, HOA dues. The 3 bedroom fractions are priced at $299,000, the dues run $12,400 per year. An owner is guaranteed 4 weeks annually. That's over $3000 per week in dues. Jeez. Even when you factor in the ability to exchange unused weeks for stays at other Elite Alliance properties (for a $250 fee) it seems impossible to rationalize.
But maybe that's just me. One bedroom fractions are priced at $125,000; 2 bedrooms, at $175,000. For more information give me a call. I've got your Kool-Aid. Grape. Lot's of sugar.
Never mind that Mammoth has been a graveyard for every "fractional" ownership development since, well, forever. Tyvek paper flaps in the breeze on unfinished fractional homes at Talus on the 10th fairway at Sierra Star. Tanavista, 45 units at The Village pared into "value priced" quarter share fractionals, is still nothing but dirt. It's sales team, once armed with high priced brochures, architectural renderings, and reservation instruments quietly scurried out of town after but a few month's in 2007. Altis, visioned as 24 exclusive slopeside townhomes—fractionalized into 1/7th's priced from the mid $500's—parachuted marketing hot shots in (from where, Tahoe?) just as real estate was poised for it's black diamond plunge. Proud Altis has been reduced to a pair of wholly owned duplexes. And now 80/50, near the Village Gondola, which has been operating on the thin vapor of 54 sold fractions--out of 224--since it first rolled out to much hoopla in 2006, is back.
I know it's back because iStar Financial, the new owner, treated me to lunch. Matt Toomey, the highly regarded chef at the highly regarded Whoa Nellie Deli in Lee Vining, served local agents ceviche, fish tacos, sliders and ceasar salad in one of 80/50's 3 bedroom "residences". Reminded me of the old days. Back when the Ritz team tried to convince us over lamb chops and potatoes lyonnaise that despite tumbling real estate values the Ritz was a different product—uncompromised quality—with a different clientele—rich folk willing to pay the $1400/s.f. tariff. Indeed, the Ritz team was freshly returned from a Southern California blitz where they'd collected another 30 reservations! Reservations from aristocrats begging to be unburdened of their surfeit of cash. The Ritz property was foreclosed on two years later. Pass the chops.
Despite the familiar treats, the 80/50 presentation felt different. It was a somewhat staid affair. Katie Morris representing, iStar Financial, was pregnant and resolute. She and her "dream team" of managers and sales staff would persevere to the end. iStar had the financial clout—38 million square feet of commercial real estate, $12 billion in assets—to see this through. It was a far cry from the Amway-like cheerleading at the original launch where glassy eyed salesfolk got so pumped up on Kool-Aid and testimonials they were ready to jump off the roof supported by nothing but talking points (some did and spent time in veritable traction).
After lunch Elizabeth McGuire, 80/50's sales team leader, gave us a tour. The sun shone brilliantly on the three steamy roof top spas. The March air was crisp and clear. Below us a private sky bridge spanned to the Village Gondola. Inside chromed exercise equipment stood idle, poised for guests. Later the valet smiled and waved as we drove off with our packets of marketing tools.
Back at my office I practiced batting away objections from hypothetical buyers and realized that no one at the luncheon had discussed financials. Try as I would one number kept returning like a meat bee to a bar-be-que, HOA dues. The 3 bedroom fractions are priced at $299,000, the dues run $12,400 per year. An owner is guaranteed 4 weeks annually. That's over $3000 per week in dues. Jeez. Even when you factor in the ability to exchange unused weeks for stays at other Elite Alliance properties (for a $250 fee) it seems impossible to rationalize.
But maybe that's just me. One bedroom fractions are priced at $125,000; 2 bedrooms, at $175,000. For more information give me a call. I've got your Kool-Aid. Grape. Lot's of sugar.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Gran Fondo Sportful
The before,
and after
pictures of my wife Barbara and me at the 131 mile Gran Fondo Sportful bike race through the Dolomites out of Feltre, Italy last summer. Hard to tell but one of us made the podium!
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Whistler Auction Averted
According to Reuters creditors agreed to postpone a foreclosure auction scheduled for tomorrow of the Whistler-Blacomb Ski Area, site of this year's winter Olympics alpine events. Fortress Investments which acquired the resort in a 2006 leveraged buyout, missed a $524 million payment due last December on a loan of $1.7 billion. The auction has been reset for February 26. Among the expected bidders, Vail Resorts, whose ski holdings include Vail, Breckenridge, and Heavenly Valley.
Fortunes for Fortress have plunged since its acquisition of Intrawest. Its stock closed at $4.20 today down from around $35 when the purchase of Intrawest was completed. Meanwhile, Joe Houssian, founder and former CEO of Intrawest, escaped with an estimated $133 million profit from the sale of his company's stock to Fortress. He is now a principal in Vancouver, BC based private equity firm, Intracorp Capital. Houssian is also involved in several green energy ventures and the real estate development and management company, Replay.
Fortunes for Fortress have plunged since its acquisition of Intrawest. Its stock closed at $4.20 today down from around $35 when the purchase of Intrawest was completed. Meanwhile, Joe Houssian, founder and former CEO of Intrawest, escaped with an estimated $133 million profit from the sale of his company's stock to Fortress. He is now a principal in Vancouver, BC based private equity firm, Intracorp Capital. Houssian is also involved in several green energy ventures and the real estate development and management company, Replay.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Whistler Could Go on the Auction Block During the Olympics
According to the Toronto Globe and Mail Whistler/Blackomb Ski Area's creditors could put the Canadian resort on the auction block in the middle of this month's Winter Olympics. Fortress Investments, a private equity and hedge fund, acquired the resort in a leveraged buyout of Intrawest in 2006 for a reported $2.8 billion including existing debt. Fortress borrowed $1.7 billion to close the deal. Intrawest/Fortress missed a $524 million payment in December after receiving a 2 month payment extension and its creditors, which include Lehmen Brothers, began foreclosure proceedings.
In 2006, at the time of the acquisition, real estate was nearing its peak. Since then values have plummeted along with real estate sales forcing Intrawest to try to service it's debt through resort operations. An impossible task. As a result Intrawest has been shedding lesser properties to reduce debt in an effort to hang onto key resorts like Whistler, Mont Tremblant and Blue Mountain in Ontario. Among the departed Panorama in B.C., Copper Mountain in Colorado and the Village at Squaw Valley, California. Even the remnants of Intrawest's Mammoth holdings-- two Altis townhomes, one Woodwinds condo and a few Westin units--have been reduced for clearance. Will this be enough to stave off foreclosure? Without major debt restructuring or bankruptcy, probably not. But I think the Games will go on without a hint of disruption.
In 2006, at the time of the acquisition, real estate was nearing its peak. Since then values have plummeted along with real estate sales forcing Intrawest to try to service it's debt through resort operations. An impossible task. As a result Intrawest has been shedding lesser properties to reduce debt in an effort to hang onto key resorts like Whistler, Mont Tremblant and Blue Mountain in Ontario. Among the departed Panorama in B.C., Copper Mountain in Colorado and the Village at Squaw Valley, California. Even the remnants of Intrawest's Mammoth holdings-- two Altis townhomes, one Woodwinds condo and a few Westin units--have been reduced for clearance. Will this be enough to stave off foreclosure? Without major debt restructuring or bankruptcy, probably not. But I think the Games will go on without a hint of disruption.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Six Feet
As of 3:15 pm, Mammoth Mountain Ski Area is reporting 6 feet of new snow in the current storm cycle that began on Sunday night. And it is snowing heavily. Lots of freshies for everyone.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Big Snow
Mammoth is being assaulted by the third in a series of four major snowstorms. Weather services are calling for 2 to 4 additional feet by Thursday afternoon. The fourth storm is predicted to be milder. Snow levels could dip to 4200 feet and affect the Owens Valley and Bishop. Bring your powder skis.
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