RIDING THE "EL" TO HEALTH AND HAPPINESS

Okay last year's weather prediction was just a feint, a juke, a jab to set up what's coming. The Big One. The knock out blow. The Drought breaker. Mr. El Niño.

NOAA now gives the El Niño—a warmer than average expanse of the sea's surface off the west coast of South America—that's formed this summer a "greater than 85% chance" of lasting through 2015. As most weather watchers know, El Niños often produce wet winters. Take the big El Niño of '97-'98 that ushered in 20-30 inches of rain along the California's coast.

But there's a kicker. Wetter fall and winter weather is much more likely if the El Niño is a strong one. Strong is an El Niño that averages 1.5º C above normal for three months. The latest Niño index is just 1.2º C (warmer than normal). Not to panic. NOAA has been observing changes in wind patterns—a weaker westerly flow at the equator—coupled with warmer waters moving east that point to a strengthening El Niño. According to NOAA, the majority of forecasts call for this El Niño to peak at 1.5 C or higher by early winter.

The downside: we may have to endure another dry summer. Anyway if you don't own real estate in Mammoth yet, it might be  a good time to shop.

FIRST QUARTER SALE RESULTS: SALES, VALUES MOSTLY HIGHER

Twenty-three million dollars. That's the total value of  homes sold in Mammoth Lakes in the first quarter of 2015. Coincidentally, $23 million also happens to be the value of condos sold in the first quarter of this year. Both results improved on the same quarter last year in which $16 million in homes and $19 million worth of condos were sold.

The number of homes changing hands was unchanged at 20, goosing the median price 25% to $895,000 from $717,500; while condo sales surged to 65, a 20% improvement over the 54 condos transacted in 2014. The median condo price remained at $299,000.

"We're thrilled to see improving results in the face of another crummy winter," said one local REALTOR® who's name is being withheld because the quote is fabricated. Indeed, although condo listing inventories have jumped a month or two earlier this spring due to snow conditions, there is little downward pressure on pricing, few short sales or REO's and no general stampede toward the exits.

Doug Magit, mortgage specialist at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, thinks mortgage interest rates will stay within a narrow range this year and that the Fed is unlikely to push rates higher before late 2015 or even 2016. The current 30 year loan interest rate is around 3.75%.  With rates near historic lows real estate investors have another reason to go shopping.

DRY, DRIER, DRIEST

Mammoth Mountain, March 27, 2015

From 395 the Mountain looks flush. From Cornice Bowl to Stump Alley. But a closer inspection reveals the drought and a snow pack in full retreat from unseasonable heat. A recent snow survey in nearby Tuolumne Meadows measured the driest conditions ever recorded for that date. 

Eagle Express

Lift Line Canyon Lodge

 Still, despite warm temperatures the skiing up until the last few days has been good. By employing the strategies you'd use in late April or early May, you can catch your favorite slope as it softens up and before it turns to base grabbing slush.

 Fortunately for local businesses, other west coast ski resorts were in even worse shape. Our local economy was stronger than last season. But unless there is a dramatic shift in the weather  our skiing days are numbered. So pack your kit and head to Mammoth. Make a few turns and take advantage of end of season's sales.While you're at it why not bring the bike and tennis racquets.

Canyon