RIDING THE "EL" TO HEALTH AND HAPPINESS

Okay last year's weather prediction was just a feint, a juke, a jab to set up what's coming. The Big One. The knock out blow. The Drought breaker. Mr. El Niño.

NOAA now gives the El Niño—a warmer than average expanse of the sea's surface off the west coast of South America—that's formed this summer a "greater than 85% chance" of lasting through 2015. As most weather watchers know, El Niños often produce wet winters. Take the big El Niño of '97-'98 that ushered in 20-30 inches of rain along the California's coast.

But there's a kicker. Wetter fall and winter weather is much more likely if the El Niño is a strong one. Strong is an El Niño that averages 1.5º C above normal for three months. The latest Niño index is just 1.2º C (warmer than normal). Not to panic. NOAA has been observing changes in wind patterns—a weaker westerly flow at the equator—coupled with warmer waters moving east that point to a strengthening El Niño. According to NOAA, the majority of forecasts call for this El Niño to peak at 1.5 C or higher by early winter.

The downside: we may have to endure another dry summer. Anyway if you don't own real estate in Mammoth yet, it might be  a good time to shop.

FIRST QUARTER SALE RESULTS: SALES, VALUES MOSTLY HIGHER

Twenty-three million dollars. That's the total value of  homes sold in Mammoth Lakes in the first quarter of 2015. Coincidentally, $23 million also happens to be the value of condos sold in the first quarter of this year. Both results improved on the same quarter last year in which $16 million in homes and $19 million worth of condos were sold.

The number of homes changing hands was unchanged at 20, goosing the median price 25% to $895,000 from $717,500; while condo sales surged to 65, a 20% improvement over the 54 condos transacted in 2014. The median condo price remained at $299,000.

"We're thrilled to see improving results in the face of another crummy winter," said one local REALTOR® who's name is being withheld because the quote is fabricated. Indeed, although condo listing inventories have jumped a month or two earlier this spring due to snow conditions, there is little downward pressure on pricing, few short sales or REO's and no general stampede toward the exits.

Doug Magit, mortgage specialist at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, thinks mortgage interest rates will stay within a narrow range this year and that the Fed is unlikely to push rates higher before late 2015 or even 2016. The current 30 year loan interest rate is around 3.75%.  With rates near historic lows real estate investors have another reason to go shopping.

DRY, DRIER, DRIEST

Mammoth Mountain, March 27, 2015

From 395 the Mountain looks flush. From Cornice Bowl to Stump Alley. But a closer inspection reveals the drought and a snow pack in full retreat from unseasonable heat. A recent snow survey in nearby Tuolumne Meadows measured the driest conditions ever recorded for that date. 

Eagle Express

Lift Line Canyon Lodge

 Still, despite warm temperatures the skiing up until the last few days has been good. By employing the strategies you'd use in late April or early May, you can catch your favorite slope as it softens up and before it turns to base grabbing slush.

 Fortunately for local businesses, other west coast ski resorts were in even worse shape. Our local economy was stronger than last season. But unless there is a dramatic shift in the weather  our skiing days are numbered. So pack your kit and head to Mammoth. Make a few turns and take advantage of end of season's sales.While you're at it why not bring the bike and tennis racquets.

Canyon

2014 THE FINAL NUMBERS: SALES DOWN, PRICES UP

We're saved. A Republican Congress was just seated and already Mitch McConnell has engineered stock market records and improving job numbers. What's more, to keep the ball rolling, he promises to defund the EPA, liberate coal, roll back Obama Care and approve the Keystone XL Pipeline. Thank you double M. The Majority Leader also aims to immortalize the Bush tax cuts and preserve extra special tax breaks like the 15% rate on carried interest for hedge fund gazillionaires. Hourly workers rejoice. It's the Second Coming of Trickle Down Economics.  Sure your incomes dropped last year while CEO's compensation ballooned to 350 times their average employee's take home pay, but buck up, unpack those umbrellas. A deluge of wealth is coming from the top that will lift all boats. Saved at last, saved at last, hallelujah, we're saved at last.

And none too soon. Sales of Mammoth real estate sputtered a bit in 2014. 244 condos changed hands last year, down 28% from the previous year's 339. Home sales slipped 8%, from 88 to 81 units sold. Disappointing but hardly a rout. Median prices in both categories rose; 13.5% for condos and 5.5% for homes. And plenty of cash was on hand. 44.5% of condo transactions did not involve financing—up from 30% in 2013—while around 40% of homes sold for cash in both 2013 and 2014.

The Christmas holidays provided another bright spot. An informal poll of local businesses showed that traffic over the period was up from last year. Lower gasoline prices and extensive snow making may have contributed to the uptick, but natural snowfall had something to do with it as well. Dry as it's been, the Mountain still received 76.5 inches of snow through December versus just 45 inches last year. That's 74% of normal. To be sure a pattern change needs to occur and fairly soon, but it's too early to write off the season just yet.

THE SHAPE OF THINGS: FIRST HALF SALES

Real estate sales were mixed in the completed first half of 2014.  38 homes changed hands through the end of June. Over $31 million worth. Only two were bank owned; only two were short sales. The median price jumped 13% to $650,750. That compares with 40 homes sold in the same period last year with 4 REO's and 5 short sales.

119 condominiums sold in the first six months of this year compared to 167 sales in the first half of 2013. Awkward results for a REALTOR® at first glance, but the median price climbed a bracing 22% to $305,000.

Further confirmation of a recovering market were found in the "distressed" column:  condominium REO sales declined from 17 in last year's first half to just 5 this year; while short sales dropped from 19 at this time last year, to just 7. Inventories remain low as we enter the summer selling season. 77 homes and just 136 condos are listed for sale on the Mammoth Lakes MLS.

With the stock market teetering near an all time high, conditions are ripe for a rotation to hard assets.

FIRST QUARTER RESULTS: 203 INCHES, $35 MILLION IN REAL ESTATE SOLD

There was another "storm" last week. In a normal year we'd hardly notice, call it snow showers. Leave the blower in the garage. 6 to 12 inches in Town, 10-18 reported on the Mountain. A child's piggy bank sort of year. Nickels and dimes. Adding up to 203 inches of snowfall by April 2nd. Escaping the stigma of being one of 4 years in the last 43 to not reach 200.

Here's the kicker. The skiing's been great. Especially for an old sod whose new hips and lots of borrowed gear, thanks John Armstrong,  prompted a return to the slopes after a 3 decade layoff. That's me on the groomers avoiding traffic, avoiding the stares that seem to insinuate, "You're going to need that helmet, pal". Struggling to sort out the modern shape of skiing. The 167 cm rockets lashed to my borrowed boots. These are not your 203 Rossi's.

We're already looking forward to what comes next. Shaking off the dry memories. Giving up on making the 342 inch average of the last 40 years. No, that's a goner. April and May together rarely produce 40 inches. Moving on.

They say an El Niño is building in the Pacific. That warm ocean expanse responsible for many wet winters along the west coast. Could be a big one like 1997-98 when the ski area picked up 450 inches. Reading the fine print the odds are still even. Fifty-fifty. More inspiring than the usual 33% chance of an El Niño. But hardly a certainty.

Real estate sales suffered from the dry conditions, too. 19 homes changed hands in the first quarter of this year. $15,677,000 worth. Two were REO's; one a short sale. The median price was $725,000.
That compares with 22 homes sold in last year's first quarter with a median sales price of $562,500. 4 were REO's and 5 were short sales.

2014's first quarter saw 54 condominiums sold for a total value of $19,244,250 at a median price of $298,000. Not one was an REO; just 3 were short sales. In the opening quarter of 2013, 73 condos  sold at a median of $272,000. 11 were bank owned; 9 were short sales.

Despite the uptick in median prices Mammoth's real estate remains a great value, still 35-45% below the 2006 peaks.