La Nina winters like this one, characterized by cold water bunched up off the coast of Peru, are tricksters. They can be either cold and wet or cold and dry. They can come late and end early or arrive early and end late. Often they portend the formation of a blocking ridge of high pressure that forces systems north through Oregon, Washington and Canada. Or not.
A series of increasingly cold storms began Friday the 19th, and by Thursday the Mountain had recorded 7 feet. For the first Thanksgiving in 6 years all the lifts were operating.
We can rule out late. Now the weatherman thinks winter might end early.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
THIRD QUARTER REAL ESTATE
If you're Glen Beck you're hoarding gold and lining up food insurance against the onrushing apocalypse. If you're Sara Palin you're stocking up on tea bags and counting the days until the next presidential election. But if you're hoping to buy or sell a piece of Mammoth real estate what do you do?
As reported earlier in The Flash condo and home sales both jumped in the first half of this year. Since most were purchased as second homes or investment properties the government tax rebates for primary residences bore little responsibility for this surge. Likewise, the cooling off of third quarter sales can not be blamed on the expiration of these tax incentives.
The number of condos sold rose less than 3% in the July to October quarter just ended over the same quarter in 2009, while the median condo price slumped 8.6% to $265,000. Condo transactions attributed to short sales or REO's surged from 19% in quarter three of '09 to 49% in this year's third quarter.
Eleven homes were sold in the third quarter of this year, off 52% from the 23 homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2009. REO's held steady at about a fourth of homes sold in Mammoth.
Expectations of a continued stream of bank repossessions have been clouded by questions regarding the propriety of the foreclosure process. Attorney's general in all 50 states are investigating. Accounts of thousands of documents being signed by speed reading clerks in a single day suggests that vast numbers of foreclosures need to be reviewed, some rescinded. We'll know more about the flow of foreclosures in a few weeks. Stay tuned.
As reported earlier in The Flash condo and home sales both jumped in the first half of this year. Since most were purchased as second homes or investment properties the government tax rebates for primary residences bore little responsibility for this surge. Likewise, the cooling off of third quarter sales can not be blamed on the expiration of these tax incentives.
The number of condos sold rose less than 3% in the July to October quarter just ended over the same quarter in 2009, while the median condo price slumped 8.6% to $265,000. Condo transactions attributed to short sales or REO's surged from 19% in quarter three of '09 to 49% in this year's third quarter.
Eleven homes were sold in the third quarter of this year, off 52% from the 23 homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2009. REO's held steady at about a fourth of homes sold in Mammoth.
Expectations of a continued stream of bank repossessions have been clouded by questions regarding the propriety of the foreclosure process. Attorney's general in all 50 states are investigating. Accounts of thousands of documents being signed by speed reading clerks in a single day suggests that vast numbers of foreclosures need to be reviewed, some rescinded. We'll know more about the flow of foreclosures in a few weeks. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Thursday, June 10, 2010
COLLEGE KIDS
A number of years ago my wife Barbara and I sold our house, bought a motor home and hit the road. We worked our way slowly up the Pacific coast visiting friends, sightseeing and hanging out. It was July by the time we reached Washington and the silver salmon were running near the mouth of the Columbia. We holed up in a spartan campground near Ilwaco on the Washington side of the river and I got outfitted with barrel bobbers, snelled hooks and frozen herring at a local tackle shop. The next day I caught a nice coho fishing off the large boulders of the Ilwaco jetty.
A week later near the Canadian border I figured to get some final use out of my Washington state angler's license. Maybe slide our new canoe into one of the bays and pick up another salmon. So in the little town of Blaine I went looking for information at the only facsimile of a sporting goods store around, the Coast to Coast Hardware.
There was no one in the tackle section. No men around at all. Just two older women working on a Weed-Eater display. One was on an aluminum step-ladder struggling to hang the machine by heavy mono-filiment fishing line. I sidled up to her ladder.
"Excuse me, would you have any idea how the fishing has been?"
"Blanche?" she hollered over her shoulder.
Blanche reappeared from the storage room with a long handled framing hammer.
"Blanche, how's fishing been?"
Blanche passed the hammer up to Marge and sized me up. "What are you after?" She stepped right next to me as if trying to guess by my scent.
"Salmon, steelhead, sea run cutthroats. Whatever's in," I said backing away.
"Slow." She motioned for Marge to move her nail our farther and triangulate the suspension.
"They must be catching something," I prodded.
"There might be a few but it's slow. Real slow. Been slow all year."
"Well, what have they been using?"
"I don't think much of anything's been working, eh Marge?"
"How's this look?" Marge held the line out. Leaning. Precarious. I found myself holding onto the ladder.
"Fine," Blanche said. Then she turned back to me with a look that suggested only a peevish discussion could follow.
I pressed ahead. "Are there other tackle shops in town? Maybe someone's heard how it's been in the last few days." Suddenly the ladder flexed. Marge lashed out awkwardly with the long handled hammer, fanning on the nail and punching a clean hole in the ceiling. Drywall dust and chipped paint settled on my arm.
"Damn!"
"Don't worry about it. Try closer in"
Marge fished another nail from her teeth, held it at a comfortable distance and set it with a single temperate blow.
"Marge, anyone down to the marina know about fishing since Dave Gundarson's laid up?"
"Dave Gundarson? There's a human tragedy." Marge climbed down the ladder. She was older than I'd thought and her lipstick, Senior Citizen Red, scrawled two fantastic arches above her mouth like some garish entry to a 1940's tunnel of love. "Crabbing out on Lou Myrek's boat," she said out of the tunnel. "Some college kid on the winch. Didn't catch Dave 'til he was halfway through the pulley. Damn kid was probably asleep. Or even drunk."
"A real shame," Blanche said.
"Dave never got right."
"No, he's not right yet."
"College kids!"
"Mind or body."
"Like a crab himself now."
"Yes. All hunched over on that broken side."
"Don't blame him for drinking."
"I can't blame him."
"A real pity though. Never missed a day's work in all his life."
"Wife and kids run off to Texas. Back to her family, I guess."
"Never missed a day and never complained."
"Anyway, she couldn't stand it. And the two boys just barely along in grammar school."
"College kids!"
"No one deserves that. She should have stuck with her man."
"Come up on vacation with their daddies and think it'd be a lark to crew a boat."
Blanche looked at Marge. "Don't any of 'em know work or responsibility."
"Had it all handed."
"Hook, line and sinker."
"And bait."
"Especially bait."
The Weed-Eater hung there green and shiny and ready for action. It seemed out of place in that rugged rural community with few lawns. The forest pushed right up to where salt grass and sand dunes meet the ocean. I thanked the ladies and headed out of the store. Blanche followed me. At the door I turned to nod goodbye.
"It's been slow here," she said in a distant thoughtful way. "Real slow."
A week later near the Canadian border I figured to get some final use out of my Washington state angler's license. Maybe slide our new canoe into one of the bays and pick up another salmon. So in the little town of Blaine I went looking for information at the only facsimile of a sporting goods store around, the Coast to Coast Hardware.
There was no one in the tackle section. No men around at all. Just two older women working on a Weed-Eater display. One was on an aluminum step-ladder struggling to hang the machine by heavy mono-filiment fishing line. I sidled up to her ladder.
"Excuse me, would you have any idea how the fishing has been?"
"Blanche?" she hollered over her shoulder.
Blanche reappeared from the storage room with a long handled framing hammer.
"Blanche, how's fishing been?"
Blanche passed the hammer up to Marge and sized me up. "What are you after?" She stepped right next to me as if trying to guess by my scent.
"Salmon, steelhead, sea run cutthroats. Whatever's in," I said backing away.
"Slow." She motioned for Marge to move her nail our farther and triangulate the suspension.
"They must be catching something," I prodded.
"There might be a few but it's slow. Real slow. Been slow all year."
"Well, what have they been using?"
"I don't think much of anything's been working, eh Marge?"
"How's this look?" Marge held the line out. Leaning. Precarious. I found myself holding onto the ladder.
"Fine," Blanche said. Then she turned back to me with a look that suggested only a peevish discussion could follow.
I pressed ahead. "Are there other tackle shops in town? Maybe someone's heard how it's been in the last few days." Suddenly the ladder flexed. Marge lashed out awkwardly with the long handled hammer, fanning on the nail and punching a clean hole in the ceiling. Drywall dust and chipped paint settled on my arm.
"Damn!"
"Don't worry about it. Try closer in"
Marge fished another nail from her teeth, held it at a comfortable distance and set it with a single temperate blow.
"Marge, anyone down to the marina know about fishing since Dave Gundarson's laid up?"
"Dave Gundarson? There's a human tragedy." Marge climbed down the ladder. She was older than I'd thought and her lipstick, Senior Citizen Red, scrawled two fantastic arches above her mouth like some garish entry to a 1940's tunnel of love. "Crabbing out on Lou Myrek's boat," she said out of the tunnel. "Some college kid on the winch. Didn't catch Dave 'til he was halfway through the pulley. Damn kid was probably asleep. Or even drunk."
"A real shame," Blanche said.
"Dave never got right."
"No, he's not right yet."
"College kids!"
"Mind or body."
"Like a crab himself now."
"Yes. All hunched over on that broken side."
"Don't blame him for drinking."
"I can't blame him."
"A real pity though. Never missed a day's work in all his life."
"Wife and kids run off to Texas. Back to her family, I guess."
"Never missed a day and never complained."
"Anyway, she couldn't stand it. And the two boys just barely along in grammar school."
"College kids!"
"No one deserves that. She should have stuck with her man."
"Come up on vacation with their daddies and think it'd be a lark to crew a boat."
Blanche looked at Marge. "Don't any of 'em know work or responsibility."
"Had it all handed."
"Hook, line and sinker."
"And bait."
"Especially bait."
The Weed-Eater hung there green and shiny and ready for action. It seemed out of place in that rugged rural community with few lawns. The forest pushed right up to where salt grass and sand dunes meet the ocean. I thanked the ladies and headed out of the store. Blanche followed me. At the door I turned to nod goodbye.
"It's been slow here," she said in a distant thoughtful way. "Real slow."
Friday, May 28, 2010
SALES UP, INTEREST RATES DOWN, TAX CREDITS EVEN
New numbers from the National Association of Realtors seem to suggest that the US real estate market has turned the corner. Sales of homes and condos for April 2010 were 22.8% higher than for the same period last year while median prices rose in almost 60% of US metropolitan markets. Lawrence Yun, the frequently optimistic chief economist for the NAR said, "The housing price correction appears essentially over."
While admitting that April's strong numbers were likely influenced by an expiring $8000 Federal tax credit and acknowledging that "there will be some fallback" in the next few months, Yun cited near record low interest rates (around 5% for a 30 year fixed rate loan), growing buyer confidence and an improving economy in calling for a turnaround.
To counter the expiring Federal credit, California is offering $200 million in tax credits to first time buyers or buyers of new homes. The credit, up to $10,000 or 5% of the purchase price whichever is less, only apply to purchases of principal residences. Qualifying properties include condos, mobile homes, and single family residences but not homes constructed by taxpayers.
Still, mortgage delinquency rates continue to weigh on real estate price gains. Figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week show that the number of delinquent mortgages across the country has not declined much in the last year. This could portend a steady stream of foreclosures.
In a news release the MBA's chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, offered tepid encouragement,"If mortgage delinquencies are not yet clearly improving, it also appears they are not getting worse." On the up side according to Brinkman, California's mortgage picture, once among the bleakest, is now getting brighter.
While admitting that April's strong numbers were likely influenced by an expiring $8000 Federal tax credit and acknowledging that "there will be some fallback" in the next few months, Yun cited near record low interest rates (around 5% for a 30 year fixed rate loan), growing buyer confidence and an improving economy in calling for a turnaround.
To counter the expiring Federal credit, California is offering $200 million in tax credits to first time buyers or buyers of new homes. The credit, up to $10,000 or 5% of the purchase price whichever is less, only apply to purchases of principal residences. Qualifying properties include condos, mobile homes, and single family residences but not homes constructed by taxpayers.
Still, mortgage delinquency rates continue to weigh on real estate price gains. Figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week show that the number of delinquent mortgages across the country has not declined much in the last year. This could portend a steady stream of foreclosures.
In a news release the MBA's chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, offered tepid encouragement,"If mortgage delinquencies are not yet clearly improving, it also appears they are not getting worse." On the up side according to Brinkman, California's mortgage picture, once among the bleakest, is now getting brighter.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
SOMETHING AFFORDABLE
I'd never abandoned clients before but I was going to now. "Get out!" I said puffing myself up like Arnold Schwartzenegger in The Terminator. "And take Scooter with you."
I wanted to see the look on their faces when it registered that I retained some measure of self respect, that I wasn't going to cling pathetically to the slim possibility of making a sale. At any cost.
"But...," Mrs. Brown pleaded, "Couldn't you at least take us back to our car?"
"Now!" I ordered pulling abruptly to the curb and stomping on the brakes.
"Harold!" Mrs. Brown, thinking about the long walk back to my office, the humiliation, begged for her husband to intercede.
"Listen, I admit things could have gone better back there but really, there wasn't any serious damage and we'll replace the stuffed pigeon. Won't we Helen."
Helen nodded but doubt clouded her face as she imagined the replacement's actual cost.
"I found this," Burton said sheepishly as he passed a video game cartridge over the seat.
"What a nice thing to do, Burty," Mrs. Brown said. "I'm sure the owner's children will be very glad you found this." She gave her young son a big hug.
"Why don't we take you to lunch," Mr. Brown suggested, all business suddenly. "I'd like to discuss financing with you." He turned to his family in the back seat. "How's lunch sound gang? Who wants a Big Mac?"
Jenny and Burton cheered. Mrs. Brown pulled herself between the front seats and looked up at me with large spaniel eyes. "Big Mac?" she prompted with a nod and a grin.
I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror standing there, chastened as I pulled away, but...
It all started ordinarily enough. The well traveled tan Suburban lurched into our lot and a teen aged boy and girl spilled out looking green and road sick. Mr. Brown, a balding man with an American paunch, strode in carrying one of our real estate guides. Mrs. Brown, her treated blond hair a frizzy cloud, made a bee line for the bathroom. They wanted to see houses. Big pricey houses.
It had been a slow morning and my antennae were down. Thinking back on it now their manner had been too casual, too offhanded. But, as I said, it had been slow and you never know.
Mr. Brown asked if we could take my car since theirs was stuffed with bikes, fishing gear, and luggage. And did I mind if Scooter rode along. Scooter was what I'd call a yappy dog, "lively", I believe the Browns put it. A small foreign short hair bred for rodent work.
I haven't always disliked dogs. We had dogs when I was a boy. Dim witted, affectionate labs. But after living in Mammoth in a home with the only lawn in a five block radius I developed an aversion. But I wanted to bond with my clients so I told them Scooter could ride in the back of my Subaru Outback wagon.
We looked at a couple of houses without incident. Jenny, maybe fifteen and Burton thirteen traipsed behind us acting bored and exhausted as I expected they would. These were nice mountain homes but without family features like a back yard or game room.
Finally, I pulled into the driveway of the property I'd been saving. There was a large yard in back with swings and the yard bordered a deep pine woods. The kids bounded out of the car before I'd come to a stop. Scooter shot over the back seat after them.
"Well, it looks like the kids have cast their vote," I said.
Opening onto the back yard was a family room with a pool table, large screen TV and Nintendo. I showed the Browns the two downstairs bedrooms with a Jack and Jill bath and then took them upstairs to the living quarters. Personal treasures of the owners decorated dressers, coffee tables and the fireplace mantle.
Mr. Brown tested the couch. Mrs. Brown examined the kitchen. We heard giggling downstairs as the kids came in and began to shoot pool. The Browns looked relieved that their children had found entertainment.
"Look Harold they have Lennox china. Did you say this was a second home?" Mrs. Brown was going through the cupboards one by one.
"Yes, the owners only use it a couple weeks a year." Agents love to see their clients settle in, get comfortable, start to decorate. It was an $800,000 home after all and automatically I began to calculate my commission.
Mr. Brown had turned on the TV and was clicking through the channels. He stopped at Oprah. There was a transexual on. It appeared that she'd discovered she was a lesbian. Mrs. Brown headed for the master bedroom. Outside Scooter had treed a cat and was circling the trunk barking wildly.
"My word, have you ever seen so many shoes?" Mrs. Brown called from the master closet.
On Oprah the transexual was in tears. A lesbian! If she'd just stayed a man. There would have been so many more possibilities. "Gee whiz," Mr. Brown got up and located a beer in the fridge. Downstairs the kids were fighting over a video game.
"I got you again," I could hear Burton say. "This isn't even fun."
"My button got stuck," Jenny screamed. "I couldn't move."
"Liar, liar, pants on fire."
"It sticks. You try to win with this controller."
"Harry, come here. I think they have a bidet," Mrs. Brown called from the master suite.
"A bidet?…in a minute. I want to see if this person gets a date." I heard the master bathroom door close quietly.
"See you're dead. It doesn't matter. You're just a dumb girl. Girls can't play video games."
"I hate you!" Jenny screamed. I heard the game controller smash against a wall.
"Nice going, Jenny," Burton yelled.
Just then the doorbell rang. I ran downstairs to answer it. It was an animal control officer looking put out. I ran back upstairs to get Mr. Brown. "Have one of the kids bring Scooter in," he said without taking his eyes off the TV. Then yelling, "Burty can't you hear Scooter barking." I went back downstairs. The officer had his ticket book out.
"I'm a REALTOR®. I'm just showing the house," I said. "These folks are from out of town."
"Well you're not. Should have told them about the leash law. You can settle up with them."
"Come on. I'm not a dog fan myself. You could gas this one for all I care. Besides, one of the kids is fetching the animal now. We'll keep him inside." In fact no one was doing anything and Scooter was still barking and circling.
The officer looked at me. "So, you're the agent?" I nodded. "Well you're all a pack of liars far as I'm concerned. An agent ripped me off when I bought my house. Told me the roof would be fixed and nothing happened. Never returns my phone calls now. Leaks like hell. Going to cost me two grand not counting the carpet. And furniture."
"I'm sorry you had a bad experience. But that wasn't me. Besides, you should have some legal recourse. If there was an agreement to fix the roof the seller will have to pay. It's the law."
"So is this," he said. "Now you want to give me your name or do I have to call in your plates?"
I stuffed the ticket in my pocket and slunk back upstairs. Mr. Brown had helped himself to another beer and was snacking on some peanuts.
"Look," Mr. Brown jumped up and pointed at the screen. "I told you she'd get a date!" He munched his peanuts excitedly. "And a nice looking college girl, too."
"That's really something," I muttered.
Harold drained his beer and slammed the empty can down on the lamp table knocking a stuffed California quail onto the floor. The brittle thin legs snapped in two.
"Oops, damn pigeon." He tried to shove the parts back together. Feathers settled on the carpet "Helen, we ought to go." He held the bird parts and two empty beer cans out to me. "Helen!"
Helen emerged from the bedroom looking refreshed. "This is a very nice home, don't you think Harold? What happened to the bird?"
"Accident," Harold said. "Was this the last place you had for us? Burty, Jenny, we're leaving."
"Yeah."
"Kind of expensive don't you think."
"Well we're in a strengthening market, and if you consider the National Forest location…"
"Saddle up troopers," he yelled.
"…it's actually quite a bargain." But my heart was no longer in it.
The kids were still fighting as they climbed into the car. Scooter had rolled in something and Helen and Harold were busy chatting about the horse back ride they'd scheduled for the afternoon. Finally, Harold turned to me. "Be sure to give me your card. You know what we're looking for so stay in touch."
"I'm not sure I do, really. Four bedrooms, 3 baths with a family room?" I gestured to the home we'd just seen.
"Great!"
Driving back through The Village with all the windows down I had my Arnold moment. I just snapped. I pulled to the curb and braked so hard everyone slammed against their seat belts. "Get out!" I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror huddled on the sidewalk, chastened as I pulled away.
No one moved.
One summer I lived in Tangier, Morocco in a small apartment a friend of my brother's had found for me. It was in the medina, the old quarter, and not far from the friend's antique and curio shop. I used to hang out in the shop and watch Majid work the tourists fresh off of the cruise ships anchoring in the bay. He had an infallible sense of who was really shopping and who was merely playing at haggling. Majid would cleverly outrage the pretenders and expertly negotiate with the buyers.
Finally, one by one the Browns got out of the car. Scooter jumped down from behind the back seat and slunk onto the sidewalk, his tail tucked.
Before closing the door Harold leaned in, "We're just looking for something affordable," he said. "Is that so bad?"
No one told me selling real estate was going to be easy. Or even enjoyable. You take whoever walks through the door. You do your best. Sometimes you make a sale. Sometimes you get a Big Mac. I didn't talk about financing with the Browns. We didn't talk about much of anything.
I wanted to see the look on their faces when it registered that I retained some measure of self respect, that I wasn't going to cling pathetically to the slim possibility of making a sale. At any cost.
"But...," Mrs. Brown pleaded, "Couldn't you at least take us back to our car?"
"Now!" I ordered pulling abruptly to the curb and stomping on the brakes.
"Harold!" Mrs. Brown, thinking about the long walk back to my office, the humiliation, begged for her husband to intercede.
"Listen, I admit things could have gone better back there but really, there wasn't any serious damage and we'll replace the stuffed pigeon. Won't we Helen."
Helen nodded but doubt clouded her face as she imagined the replacement's actual cost.
"I found this," Burton said sheepishly as he passed a video game cartridge over the seat.
"What a nice thing to do, Burty," Mrs. Brown said. "I'm sure the owner's children will be very glad you found this." She gave her young son a big hug.
"Why don't we take you to lunch," Mr. Brown suggested, all business suddenly. "I'd like to discuss financing with you." He turned to his family in the back seat. "How's lunch sound gang? Who wants a Big Mac?"
Jenny and Burton cheered. Mrs. Brown pulled herself between the front seats and looked up at me with large spaniel eyes. "Big Mac?" she prompted with a nod and a grin.
I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror standing there, chastened as I pulled away, but...
It all started ordinarily enough. The well traveled tan Suburban lurched into our lot and a teen aged boy and girl spilled out looking green and road sick. Mr. Brown, a balding man with an American paunch, strode in carrying one of our real estate guides. Mrs. Brown, her treated blond hair a frizzy cloud, made a bee line for the bathroom. They wanted to see houses. Big pricey houses.
It had been a slow morning and my antennae were down. Thinking back on it now their manner had been too casual, too offhanded. But, as I said, it had been slow and you never know.
Mr. Brown asked if we could take my car since theirs was stuffed with bikes, fishing gear, and luggage. And did I mind if Scooter rode along. Scooter was what I'd call a yappy dog, "lively", I believe the Browns put it. A small foreign short hair bred for rodent work.
I haven't always disliked dogs. We had dogs when I was a boy. Dim witted, affectionate labs. But after living in Mammoth in a home with the only lawn in a five block radius I developed an aversion. But I wanted to bond with my clients so I told them Scooter could ride in the back of my Subaru Outback wagon.
We looked at a couple of houses without incident. Jenny, maybe fifteen and Burton thirteen traipsed behind us acting bored and exhausted as I expected they would. These were nice mountain homes but without family features like a back yard or game room.
Finally, I pulled into the driveway of the property I'd been saving. There was a large yard in back with swings and the yard bordered a deep pine woods. The kids bounded out of the car before I'd come to a stop. Scooter shot over the back seat after them.
"Well, it looks like the kids have cast their vote," I said.
Opening onto the back yard was a family room with a pool table, large screen TV and Nintendo. I showed the Browns the two downstairs bedrooms with a Jack and Jill bath and then took them upstairs to the living quarters. Personal treasures of the owners decorated dressers, coffee tables and the fireplace mantle.
Mr. Brown tested the couch. Mrs. Brown examined the kitchen. We heard giggling downstairs as the kids came in and began to shoot pool. The Browns looked relieved that their children had found entertainment.
"Look Harold they have Lennox china. Did you say this was a second home?" Mrs. Brown was going through the cupboards one by one.
"Yes, the owners only use it a couple weeks a year." Agents love to see their clients settle in, get comfortable, start to decorate. It was an $800,000 home after all and automatically I began to calculate my commission.
Mr. Brown had turned on the TV and was clicking through the channels. He stopped at Oprah. There was a transexual on. It appeared that she'd discovered she was a lesbian. Mrs. Brown headed for the master bedroom. Outside Scooter had treed a cat and was circling the trunk barking wildly.
"My word, have you ever seen so many shoes?" Mrs. Brown called from the master closet.
On Oprah the transexual was in tears. A lesbian! If she'd just stayed a man. There would have been so many more possibilities. "Gee whiz," Mr. Brown got up and located a beer in the fridge. Downstairs the kids were fighting over a video game.
"I got you again," I could hear Burton say. "This isn't even fun."
"My button got stuck," Jenny screamed. "I couldn't move."
"Liar, liar, pants on fire."
"It sticks. You try to win with this controller."
"Harry, come here. I think they have a bidet," Mrs. Brown called from the master suite.
"A bidet?…in a minute. I want to see if this person gets a date." I heard the master bathroom door close quietly.
"See you're dead. It doesn't matter. You're just a dumb girl. Girls can't play video games."
"I hate you!" Jenny screamed. I heard the game controller smash against a wall.
"Nice going, Jenny," Burton yelled.
Just then the doorbell rang. I ran downstairs to answer it. It was an animal control officer looking put out. I ran back upstairs to get Mr. Brown. "Have one of the kids bring Scooter in," he said without taking his eyes off the TV. Then yelling, "Burty can't you hear Scooter barking." I went back downstairs. The officer had his ticket book out.
"I'm a REALTOR®. I'm just showing the house," I said. "These folks are from out of town."
"Well you're not. Should have told them about the leash law. You can settle up with them."
"Come on. I'm not a dog fan myself. You could gas this one for all I care. Besides, one of the kids is fetching the animal now. We'll keep him inside." In fact no one was doing anything and Scooter was still barking and circling.
The officer looked at me. "So, you're the agent?" I nodded. "Well you're all a pack of liars far as I'm concerned. An agent ripped me off when I bought my house. Told me the roof would be fixed and nothing happened. Never returns my phone calls now. Leaks like hell. Going to cost me two grand not counting the carpet. And furniture."
"I'm sorry you had a bad experience. But that wasn't me. Besides, you should have some legal recourse. If there was an agreement to fix the roof the seller will have to pay. It's the law."
"So is this," he said. "Now you want to give me your name or do I have to call in your plates?"
I stuffed the ticket in my pocket and slunk back upstairs. Mr. Brown had helped himself to another beer and was snacking on some peanuts.
"Look," Mr. Brown jumped up and pointed at the screen. "I told you she'd get a date!" He munched his peanuts excitedly. "And a nice looking college girl, too."
"That's really something," I muttered.
Harold drained his beer and slammed the empty can down on the lamp table knocking a stuffed California quail onto the floor. The brittle thin legs snapped in two.
"Oops, damn pigeon." He tried to shove the parts back together. Feathers settled on the carpet "Helen, we ought to go." He held the bird parts and two empty beer cans out to me. "Helen!"
Helen emerged from the bedroom looking refreshed. "This is a very nice home, don't you think Harold? What happened to the bird?"
"Accident," Harold said. "Was this the last place you had for us? Burty, Jenny, we're leaving."
"Yeah."
"Kind of expensive don't you think."
"Well we're in a strengthening market, and if you consider the National Forest location…"
"Saddle up troopers," he yelled.
"…it's actually quite a bargain." But my heart was no longer in it.
The kids were still fighting as they climbed into the car. Scooter had rolled in something and Helen and Harold were busy chatting about the horse back ride they'd scheduled for the afternoon. Finally, Harold turned to me. "Be sure to give me your card. You know what we're looking for so stay in touch."
"I'm not sure I do, really. Four bedrooms, 3 baths with a family room?" I gestured to the home we'd just seen.
"Great!"
Driving back through The Village with all the windows down I had my Arnold moment. I just snapped. I pulled to the curb and braked so hard everyone slammed against their seat belts. "Get out!" I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror huddled on the sidewalk, chastened as I pulled away.
No one moved.
One summer I lived in Tangier, Morocco in a small apartment a friend of my brother's had found for me. It was in the medina, the old quarter, and not far from the friend's antique and curio shop. I used to hang out in the shop and watch Majid work the tourists fresh off of the cruise ships anchoring in the bay. He had an infallible sense of who was really shopping and who was merely playing at haggling. Majid would cleverly outrage the pretenders and expertly negotiate with the buyers.
Finally, one by one the Browns got out of the car. Scooter jumped down from behind the back seat and slunk onto the sidewalk, his tail tucked.
Before closing the door Harold leaned in, "We're just looking for something affordable," he said. "Is that so bad?"
No one told me selling real estate was going to be easy. Or even enjoyable. You take whoever walks through the door. You do your best. Sometimes you make a sale. Sometimes you get a Big Mac. I didn't talk about financing with the Browns. We didn't talk about much of anything.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
HEDGE FUND GIANT SAYS, "BUY!"
John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who pulled down nearly $4 billion by making bets against the housing market in 2007, has turned bullish on real estate. In a May 10 online article for Market Watch, Alistair Barr wrote that Paulson is calling for appreciation of 3% to 5% in home prices this year and another 8% to 12% in 2011.
"My advice to all Americans—if you don't own a home today now's the time to buy one," Paulson said. "If you already own one, now's the time to buy another one. If you already own two, it's time to help your children buy a home."
The comments were made in a conference call Monday to investors in his $34 billion Paulson and Company hedge funds. Paulson noted that when incomes, mortgage rates and median prices are considered, homes are at their most affordable levels in 50 years. He cited the 290,000 jobs added to payrolls last month, low mortgage rates and rising corporate profits in predicting 4-5% GDP growth in 2011 and a sharp V shaped economic recovery.
Data released by the National Association of Realtors last week support Paulson's optimism. Home prices rose in most U.S. cities in the first quarter, loan delinquencies declined and the number of pending sales were up 21.1% over March of 2009.
Of course, the future is never entirely clear and not everyone is so sanguine. Many point out that first time home buyer Federal tax credits, which expired last month, likely skewed sales figures higher. And troubled mortgage behemoths Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both expect housing to show weakness through the rest of 2010. Still, as John Paulson's success illustrates, those who anticipate the market may reap big rewards.
"My advice to all Americans—if you don't own a home today now's the time to buy one," Paulson said. "If you already own one, now's the time to buy another one. If you already own two, it's time to help your children buy a home."
The comments were made in a conference call Monday to investors in his $34 billion Paulson and Company hedge funds. Paulson noted that when incomes, mortgage rates and median prices are considered, homes are at their most affordable levels in 50 years. He cited the 290,000 jobs added to payrolls last month, low mortgage rates and rising corporate profits in predicting 4-5% GDP growth in 2011 and a sharp V shaped economic recovery.
Data released by the National Association of Realtors last week support Paulson's optimism. Home prices rose in most U.S. cities in the first quarter, loan delinquencies declined and the number of pending sales were up 21.1% over March of 2009.
Of course, the future is never entirely clear and not everyone is so sanguine. Many point out that first time home buyer Federal tax credits, which expired last month, likely skewed sales figures higher. And troubled mortgage behemoths Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both expect housing to show weakness through the rest of 2010. Still, as John Paulson's success illustrates, those who anticipate the market may reap big rewards.
Friday, April 30, 2010
PACE OF REO'S, SHORT SALES SLOWS
Have real estate values in Mammoth turned the corner? Are foreclosures drying up? Buyers and Sellers facing the old buy, sell, or hold conundrum should take note of the following year to date sales and listing figures. Since January 1st, 165 condos have sold or are in escrow (291 sold in all of '09). Of those 29 were REO's (lender owned) and another 37 were short sales–40% of this year's total. 40 homes have gone into escrow or sold since the first of the year (65 homes sold in '09). 8 were REO's and 8 were short sales, also 40% of the total.
The median price of sold condos edged up in the first 4 months to $328,000 from $325,000 last year, a statistical wash. While the median price of homes sold this year eased to $731,000 from 2009's median of $799,567. That's an 8.5% drop. Although median prices are a coarse market metric especially in a small sample, it's fair to say that home prices are still slipping while condo values are stabilizing.
Where do we go from here? Of the 175 condos currently for sale, just 5 are REO's and 27 are short sale listings. 66 homes are on the market and only 4 are REO's or short sale listings. Does this mean that the flood of distressed properties has abated? Any slowing would be good news for Mammoth property owners and portend firming prices, but the picture is still not entirely clear.
Barclays Capital in New York calculated that as of the end of February 4.6 million homeowners nationwide were 90 days late on their mortgage payments according to an April 28 online Wall Street Journal report. But the experts can't seem to agree on how many of those delinquent home loans will translate into foreclosures or short sales. Barclays thinks 1.6 million this year and in 2011, and another 1.5 million in 2012.
Mammoth with its limited private real estate base is a unique market and may be somewhat immune to national foreclosure trends, but Buyers still need to shop smart. And if you are a Seller, listen to your REALTOR® when it comes to setting an asking price. We're selling properties priced right, but set your sights too high and you may end up chasing the market down.
The median price of sold condos edged up in the first 4 months to $328,000 from $325,000 last year, a statistical wash. While the median price of homes sold this year eased to $731,000 from 2009's median of $799,567. That's an 8.5% drop. Although median prices are a coarse market metric especially in a small sample, it's fair to say that home prices are still slipping while condo values are stabilizing.
Where do we go from here? Of the 175 condos currently for sale, just 5 are REO's and 27 are short sale listings. 66 homes are on the market and only 4 are REO's or short sale listings. Does this mean that the flood of distressed properties has abated? Any slowing would be good news for Mammoth property owners and portend firming prices, but the picture is still not entirely clear.
Barclays Capital in New York calculated that as of the end of February 4.6 million homeowners nationwide were 90 days late on their mortgage payments according to an April 28 online Wall Street Journal report. But the experts can't seem to agree on how many of those delinquent home loans will translate into foreclosures or short sales. Barclays thinks 1.6 million this year and in 2011, and another 1.5 million in 2012.
Mammoth with its limited private real estate base is a unique market and may be somewhat immune to national foreclosure trends, but Buyers still need to shop smart. And if you are a Seller, listen to your REALTOR® when it comes to setting an asking price. We're selling properties priced right, but set your sights too high and you may end up chasing the market down.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
MAMMOTH BOASTS A 15 FOOT BASE
Mammoth Mountain has recorded 515 inches of snowfall this season, the most since the record setting 578 inch 2005-2006 season. The average annual snowfall since 1969 is 342.5 inches and this winter topped the averages for every month except November. Although Canyon Lodge and Eagle Express will be closing after this weekend the Mountain recently announced that, with a 15 foot base, operations at the Main Lodge would continue through the Fourth of July. So don't put those skis away just yet.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Federal and State Home Buyers Tax Credits
The popular Federal first time home buyer's tax credit is due to expire soon. To qualify for as much as $8000 in tax credits, buyers of principal residences must open valid escrows by the end of April and close the purchase by the end of June.
A buyer is eligible for the full credit (the lower of 10% of the purchase price or $8000) if the home being acquired is their first in the last three years. A smaller credit of up to $6500 is available to those who've owned a home five out of the last eight years. Purchase prices must be below $800,000 and buyer incomes can not exceed $250,000 per couple or $125,000 for individuals. There's a nice synopsis on the National Association of Homebuilders site. And be sure to talk with your accountant.
In more good news for home buyers Governor Schwarzenegger was expected to sign a bill authorizing credits for Californians buying their first home. The credit would apply to new or existing homes purchased between May 1, 2010 and the end of the year or who enter into a purchase contract on or before December 31, 2010 and close on the transaction by August 1, 2011. The credit is the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000. The credit will be doled out over three consecutive years in equal amounts. California requires buyers to live in their new primary residence for 2 years (the Federal requirement is 3 years). Again, talk with your tax man about the details of the new California program. Click the link for a C.A.R. side by side comparison of state and Federal plans. And talk to me about qualifying homes in Mammoth!
A buyer is eligible for the full credit (the lower of 10% of the purchase price or $8000) if the home being acquired is their first in the last three years. A smaller credit of up to $6500 is available to those who've owned a home five out of the last eight years. Purchase prices must be below $800,000 and buyer incomes can not exceed $250,000 per couple or $125,000 for individuals. There's a nice synopsis on the National Association of Homebuilders site. And be sure to talk with your accountant.
In more good news for home buyers Governor Schwarzenegger was expected to sign a bill authorizing credits for Californians buying their first home. The credit would apply to new or existing homes purchased between May 1, 2010 and the end of the year or who enter into a purchase contract on or before December 31, 2010 and close on the transaction by August 1, 2011. The credit is the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000. The credit will be doled out over three consecutive years in equal amounts. California requires buyers to live in their new primary residence for 2 years (the Federal requirement is 3 years). Again, talk with your tax man about the details of the new California program. Click the link for a C.A.R. side by side comparison of state and Federal plans. And talk to me about qualifying homes in Mammoth!
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
THEY'RE BAA-AACK.
It's the return of the Kool-Aid drinkers. The starry eyed marketeers. Yes, the fractionals.
Never mind that Mammoth has been a graveyard for every "fractional" ownership development since, well, forever. Tyvek paper flaps in the breeze on unfinished fractional homes at Talus on the 10th fairway at Sierra Star. Tanavista, 45 units at The Village pared into "value priced" quarter share fractionals, is still nothing but dirt. It's sales team, once armed with high priced brochures, architectural renderings, and reservation instruments quietly scurried out of town after but a few month's in 2007. Altis, visioned as 24 exclusive slopeside townhomes—fractionalized into 1/7th's priced from the mid $500's—parachuted marketing hot shots in (from where, Tahoe?) just as real estate was poised for it's black diamond plunge. Proud Altis has been reduced to a pair of wholly owned duplexes. And now 80/50, near the Village Gondola, which has been operating on the thin vapor of 54 sold fractions--out of 224--since it first rolled out to much hoopla in 2006, is back.
I know it's back because iStar Financial, the new owner, treated me to lunch. Matt Toomey, the highly regarded chef at the highly regarded Whoa Nellie Deli in Lee Vining, served local agents ceviche, fish tacos, sliders and ceasar salad in one of 80/50's 3 bedroom "residences". Reminded me of the old days. Back when the Ritz team tried to convince us over lamb chops and potatoes lyonnaise that despite tumbling real estate values the Ritz was a different product—uncompromised quality—with a different clientele—rich folk willing to pay the $1400/s.f. tariff. Indeed, the Ritz team was freshly returned from a Southern California blitz where they'd collected another 30 reservations! Reservations from aristocrats begging to be unburdened of their surfeit of cash. The Ritz property was foreclosed on two years later. Pass the chops.
Despite the familiar treats, the 80/50 presentation felt different. It was a somewhat staid affair. Katie Morris representing, iStar Financial, was pregnant and resolute. She and her "dream team" of managers and sales staff would persevere to the end. iStar had the financial clout—38 million square feet of commercial real estate, $12 billion in assets—to see this through. It was a far cry from the Amway-like cheerleading at the original launch where glassy eyed salesfolk got so pumped up on Kool-Aid and testimonials they were ready to jump off the roof supported by nothing but talking points (some did and spent time in veritable traction).
After lunch Elizabeth McGuire, 80/50's sales team leader, gave us a tour. The sun shone brilliantly on the three steamy roof top spas. The March air was crisp and clear. Below us a private sky bridge spanned to the Village Gondola. Inside chromed exercise equipment stood idle, poised for guests. Later the valet smiled and waved as we drove off with our packets of marketing tools.
Back at my office I practiced batting away objections from hypothetical buyers and realized that no one at the luncheon had discussed financials. Try as I would one number kept returning like a meat bee to a bar-be-que, HOA dues. The 3 bedroom fractions are priced at $299,000, the dues run $12,400 per year. An owner is guaranteed 4 weeks annually. That's over $3000 per week in dues. Jeez. Even when you factor in the ability to exchange unused weeks for stays at other Elite Alliance properties (for a $250 fee) it seems impossible to rationalize.
But maybe that's just me. One bedroom fractions are priced at $125,000; 2 bedrooms, at $175,000. For more information give me a call. I've got your Kool-Aid. Grape. Lot's of sugar.
Never mind that Mammoth has been a graveyard for every "fractional" ownership development since, well, forever. Tyvek paper flaps in the breeze on unfinished fractional homes at Talus on the 10th fairway at Sierra Star. Tanavista, 45 units at The Village pared into "value priced" quarter share fractionals, is still nothing but dirt. It's sales team, once armed with high priced brochures, architectural renderings, and reservation instruments quietly scurried out of town after but a few month's in 2007. Altis, visioned as 24 exclusive slopeside townhomes—fractionalized into 1/7th's priced from the mid $500's—parachuted marketing hot shots in (from where, Tahoe?) just as real estate was poised for it's black diamond plunge. Proud Altis has been reduced to a pair of wholly owned duplexes. And now 80/50, near the Village Gondola, which has been operating on the thin vapor of 54 sold fractions--out of 224--since it first rolled out to much hoopla in 2006, is back.
I know it's back because iStar Financial, the new owner, treated me to lunch. Matt Toomey, the highly regarded chef at the highly regarded Whoa Nellie Deli in Lee Vining, served local agents ceviche, fish tacos, sliders and ceasar salad in one of 80/50's 3 bedroom "residences". Reminded me of the old days. Back when the Ritz team tried to convince us over lamb chops and potatoes lyonnaise that despite tumbling real estate values the Ritz was a different product—uncompromised quality—with a different clientele—rich folk willing to pay the $1400/s.f. tariff. Indeed, the Ritz team was freshly returned from a Southern California blitz where they'd collected another 30 reservations! Reservations from aristocrats begging to be unburdened of their surfeit of cash. The Ritz property was foreclosed on two years later. Pass the chops.
Despite the familiar treats, the 80/50 presentation felt different. It was a somewhat staid affair. Katie Morris representing, iStar Financial, was pregnant and resolute. She and her "dream team" of managers and sales staff would persevere to the end. iStar had the financial clout—38 million square feet of commercial real estate, $12 billion in assets—to see this through. It was a far cry from the Amway-like cheerleading at the original launch where glassy eyed salesfolk got so pumped up on Kool-Aid and testimonials they were ready to jump off the roof supported by nothing but talking points (some did and spent time in veritable traction).
After lunch Elizabeth McGuire, 80/50's sales team leader, gave us a tour. The sun shone brilliantly on the three steamy roof top spas. The March air was crisp and clear. Below us a private sky bridge spanned to the Village Gondola. Inside chromed exercise equipment stood idle, poised for guests. Later the valet smiled and waved as we drove off with our packets of marketing tools.
Back at my office I practiced batting away objections from hypothetical buyers and realized that no one at the luncheon had discussed financials. Try as I would one number kept returning like a meat bee to a bar-be-que, HOA dues. The 3 bedroom fractions are priced at $299,000, the dues run $12,400 per year. An owner is guaranteed 4 weeks annually. That's over $3000 per week in dues. Jeez. Even when you factor in the ability to exchange unused weeks for stays at other Elite Alliance properties (for a $250 fee) it seems impossible to rationalize.
But maybe that's just me. One bedroom fractions are priced at $125,000; 2 bedrooms, at $175,000. For more information give me a call. I've got your Kool-Aid. Grape. Lot's of sugar.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Gran Fondo Sportful
The before,
and after
pictures of my wife Barbara and me at the 131 mile Gran Fondo Sportful bike race through the Dolomites out of Feltre, Italy last summer. Hard to tell but one of us made the podium!
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Whistler Auction Averted
According to Reuters creditors agreed to postpone a foreclosure auction scheduled for tomorrow of the Whistler-Blacomb Ski Area, site of this year's winter Olympics alpine events. Fortress Investments which acquired the resort in a 2006 leveraged buyout, missed a $524 million payment due last December on a loan of $1.7 billion. The auction has been reset for February 26. Among the expected bidders, Vail Resorts, whose ski holdings include Vail, Breckenridge, and Heavenly Valley.
Fortunes for Fortress have plunged since its acquisition of Intrawest. Its stock closed at $4.20 today down from around $35 when the purchase of Intrawest was completed. Meanwhile, Joe Houssian, founder and former CEO of Intrawest, escaped with an estimated $133 million profit from the sale of his company's stock to Fortress. He is now a principal in Vancouver, BC based private equity firm, Intracorp Capital. Houssian is also involved in several green energy ventures and the real estate development and management company, Replay.
Fortunes for Fortress have plunged since its acquisition of Intrawest. Its stock closed at $4.20 today down from around $35 when the purchase of Intrawest was completed. Meanwhile, Joe Houssian, founder and former CEO of Intrawest, escaped with an estimated $133 million profit from the sale of his company's stock to Fortress. He is now a principal in Vancouver, BC based private equity firm, Intracorp Capital. Houssian is also involved in several green energy ventures and the real estate development and management company, Replay.
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Whistler Could Go on the Auction Block During the Olympics
According to the Toronto Globe and Mail Whistler/Blackomb Ski Area's creditors could put the Canadian resort on the auction block in the middle of this month's Winter Olympics. Fortress Investments, a private equity and hedge fund, acquired the resort in a leveraged buyout of Intrawest in 2006 for a reported $2.8 billion including existing debt. Fortress borrowed $1.7 billion to close the deal. Intrawest/Fortress missed a $524 million payment in December after receiving a 2 month payment extension and its creditors, which include Lehmen Brothers, began foreclosure proceedings.
In 2006, at the time of the acquisition, real estate was nearing its peak. Since then values have plummeted along with real estate sales forcing Intrawest to try to service it's debt through resort operations. An impossible task. As a result Intrawest has been shedding lesser properties to reduce debt in an effort to hang onto key resorts like Whistler, Mont Tremblant and Blue Mountain in Ontario. Among the departed Panorama in B.C., Copper Mountain in Colorado and the Village at Squaw Valley, California. Even the remnants of Intrawest's Mammoth holdings-- two Altis townhomes, one Woodwinds condo and a few Westin units--have been reduced for clearance. Will this be enough to stave off foreclosure? Without major debt restructuring or bankruptcy, probably not. But I think the Games will go on without a hint of disruption.
In 2006, at the time of the acquisition, real estate was nearing its peak. Since then values have plummeted along with real estate sales forcing Intrawest to try to service it's debt through resort operations. An impossible task. As a result Intrawest has been shedding lesser properties to reduce debt in an effort to hang onto key resorts like Whistler, Mont Tremblant and Blue Mountain in Ontario. Among the departed Panorama in B.C., Copper Mountain in Colorado and the Village at Squaw Valley, California. Even the remnants of Intrawest's Mammoth holdings-- two Altis townhomes, one Woodwinds condo and a few Westin units--have been reduced for clearance. Will this be enough to stave off foreclosure? Without major debt restructuring or bankruptcy, probably not. But I think the Games will go on without a hint of disruption.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Six Feet
As of 3:15 pm, Mammoth Mountain Ski Area is reporting 6 feet of new snow in the current storm cycle that began on Sunday night. And it is snowing heavily. Lots of freshies for everyone.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Big Snow
Mammoth is being assaulted by the third in a series of four major snowstorms. Weather services are calling for 2 to 4 additional feet by Thursday afternoon. The fourth storm is predicted to be milder. Snow levels could dip to 4200 feet and affect the Owens Valley and Bishop. Bring your powder skis.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)