Mammoth Flash

Miracle March?

2012-02-29T11:34:00.000-08:00

It's snowed on Mammoth Mountain. Since February 12, 27 inches have fallen on the ski slopes. The Mountain is reporting a total recorded snowfall for the season of 134 inches and a base of 3.5-5 feet. By most reports skiing is good.

Rumors of a massive March, a "miracle March" like we had in 1991, have been circulating for weeks. Just 42 inches of snow had dusted the Mountain's slopes until March of '91. Then it started snowing and didn't stop. Nearly 176 inches fell. Another March like that and we'd be close to the 340.5 inch average for the past 41 years--100 inches short of the 440.5 inches the last 10 years have averaged--but we could live with that.

In the last two days storms have deposited another 9 inches on the Mountain and a windy system, hammering the slopes right now, is forecast to bring another 6 inches by Friday.

2011 RECAP: SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING

2012-01-15T16:36:00.000-08:00

It was a La Nina kind of year. Turbulent. Unpredictable. Disappointing. Dry. The stock market ended within a few points of where it began. The economy came off life support but stayed in the ICU. The ranks of the unemployed remained alarmingly swollen. In real estate, the pace of foreclosures and short sales continued unabated while values slid further south.

In Mammoth 303 condominiums changed hands. Nearly half of them were distressed sales: auctioned, owned by banks or sold short by lenders. That contrasts with 375 sales, in 2010 in which 38% were distressed. The median price of a condo sold in 2011 was $242,000 off 13.5% from 2010's median of $280,000.

Home sales remained nearly steady at 70 transactions contrasting with 72 sold in 2010. The median price eased 9.2% to $567,500 from $625,000 in 2010. 29% of home sales were bank owned or short sales in 2011 compared with 39% in 2010.

Downward price pressure is not coming from a bloated inventory. Currently there are just 57 homes and 160 condos listed for sale in Mammoth. Well below historical norms. Rather values are being weighed down by distressed properties hitting the market at clearance prices.

On an upbeat note, the Fed's January 11, Beige Book had an opptimistic report on commercial real estate, leading commentator Phil Davis to exclaim, "It is very possible we are finally seeing a bottom." He went on to say that the "Fed and Administration are now looking to concentrate their firepower on residential real estate." Calling it "the last major drag on the economy."

Interest rates on conforming 30 year fixed rate loans dipped below 4 % last week, to a new 40 year low.

WHITE CHRISTMAS?

2011-12-06T16:31:00.000-08:00

Eagle Base

It was a post Thanksgiving storm like the other recent fronts. Dry and cold. Since early October's 18 inch snow Mammoth had accumulated less than a foot. The difference this time was the hostile wind--clocked at over 150 mph on the Mountain-- careening out of the north accelerated by the eggbeater of counter spinning high and a low pressure systems in upper Nevada.

My roof started coming apart at 11:00. An awful hammering above our bedroom like some twilight zone monster chopping through the rafters. I bundled up and circled the house with a flashlight. One of the 24 foot long interlocking steel panels had torn loose at the eve and was clapping against the roof sheeting. I'd thought about tightening the screws this summer, after all it had been 20 years, but never got around to it. Now, I imagined one panel after the other peeling off like a deck of playing cards and tearing through the neighborhood .

Canyon Lodge

I rounded up my wife and we wrastled our 24 foot aluminum extension ladder through the wind and stuck it tentatively in the glacial remnants of our last snow. The ladder swayed in the breeze as we ran it up.

"This is crazy," Barbara said fighting to keep the ladder from skating off the sloping frozen ground and into our neighbor Bob's house. Nothing doing anyway. We were one rung short of the roof line. We retreated to the garage and swapped for a shorter ladder.

Things weren't much more secure from the second floor deck as I stood on a high rung and leaned over the roof to replace the loose screws. By tipping the ladder onto one leg and underclinging the front eve I could just reach the last screw with my electric drill. Barbara was whimpering on the snow dusted deck. "This isn't worth dying for." I got in three good screws.

Main Lodge

Back in bed all was quiet at first. I'd get a roofer out in the morning. Then after less than 30 minutes kerwhap, whap. Horrible, metallic, like the Blitz. Sleep was futile. Barb withdrew to a downstairs bedroom. I went out to survey the situation. My 2 inch screws had all pulled and the upwind interlocking seam had lifted, zippering all the way to the ridge. The panel was flapping like an outhouse door. It was only a matter of time before it cut loose.

Here's the thing about metal roofs. The sheets are customized for length and color. A replacement could take weeks to make. I lay awake listening for the inevitable ricochet of my roof panel caroming down the street, resolved to chase after it and drag it back to the garage.

When my neighbor called at 9:00 I'd been asleep for about two hours. The wind had slackened and the panel was still flapping. I called Mike Kenney Roofing. Within 45 minutes Mike's crew, tethered on opposite sides of the roof, had set things to right. Hold the wind, I'll take 40 feet of snow.

Crews at Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort have been furiously making snow over the past weeks. From most reports the skiing is good. Canyon Lodge and Little Eagle are scheduled to be open by December 14th!

MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE: Third Quarter Results

2011-10-18T12:51:00.000-07:00

After an early October snow storm Mammoth has been granted a reprieve. An interlude of quiet grace. Gilded low angled light sets the countryside aglow. Temperatures arc into the 70's. Aspens and willows, cottonwoods and birches turn out in luminescent golds and shocking reds.

Fishing, by some accounts, has gone off, like a pre-holiday sale. One local tells of bolting down highway 395 on his lunch break, clomping in waders through a mile of boggy meadow to a Crowley Lake glory hole, making two casts, catching and releasing a 23 inch broad girthed 5 pound rainbow and returning to work without anyone being the wiser.

It's a swell time to be in Mammoth.

It's not a bad time to be looking for real estate either. Mortgage rates hover near 4%. Sellers are eager to move on before the real snow hits, and marked down prices, paced by short sales and REOs, haven't looked this cheap since, well, since 2001. For instance, one lucky Mammoth Realty Group client snapped up an 1849, 4 bedroom/3 bath condo recently for the prehistoric price of $380,000.

80 condos changed hands in the third quarter this year, up 11% from 2010's third quarter. The median price eased 16.6% to $223,000 from the same period in 2010. Bank and developer negotiated transactions accounted for 55% of sales while just 17.5% of the current 215 active condo listings are short sales, auction offerings or bank owned.

20 homes sold in the third quarter, a 150% increase over last year, leaving just 66 homes actively listed. The median price slid 10% to $530,000. REOs and short sales made up 27% of sales and constitute just 10.5% of current single family listings.

If you hurry you may still catch a bit of Mammoth's Fall glory and if your even luckier you might snag a piece of Mammoth real estate. For the latest listings please contact me at: dphillips.dpbp@verizon.net.

2 FEET ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN!

2011-10-13T12:31:00.000-07:00

An early October front deposited up to 2 feet of snow on the slopes of Mammoth Mountain. Portent of an early winter? According to most weathermen we can expect warm temperatures right up to November. It's beautiful here now and the aspens are just starting to turn. Fishing's great. Cycling's great. Town is quiet. It's locals favorite time of the year.

OCTOBER NEWSLETTER

2011-10-07T16:41:00.000-07:00

MORTGAGE RATES HIT RECORD LOWS

2011-08-18T12:40:00.000-07:00

With housing in a 5 year swoon some observers are looking to this week's record low mortgage rates to boost Mammoth's real estate market. This morning Doug Magit, with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, reported a 4.125% fixed interest rate for 30 year Fannie Mae conforming mortgages on primary or second home loans. These rates reflect a 20% down payment for single family homes and 25% down for condos. Both loans were calculated with .25 origination points.

By contrast, 10 years ago these same loans were pegged at around 7% interest with 1 origination point. When the market peaked in 2007 rates were still about 2% higher than they are today.

With many economists predicting inflation to accelerate in the next few years, and with some Mammoth Lakes real estate selling at an appealing 40% discount from 2007's highs, tying up a fixed rate loan at today's rates and paying it back with cheaper inflated dollars down the road is looking increasingly attractive to investors.

To be sure qualifying standards have tightened up since the 2008 financial crisis. There are no more "liar's" stated income loans and credit scores need to be a sterling 740 or higher. Further a nearly mandatory 20-25% down payment replaces the low and zero down loans so popular just a few years ago. But, for those who meet these requirements a thorough examination of today's opportunities is warranted.

Find out what kind of loan you qualify for by following the link to Doug Magit's website then give me a call for an up to date list of Mammoth's best real estate buys.

MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE: REO SALES DRIVE RESULTS IN THE FIRST HALF

2011-07-14T13:04:00.000-07:00

Nearly 50% of condos sold in the first half of 2011 were bank owned properties (REO's), or short sale listings, reflecting a continuation of the bargain shopping evident in the first quarter of 2011.

The median sold price for condos eased to $245,000 from $313,000 for the same period last year, while sales slid to 141 units from last year's 158 a possible reflection on Mammoth's record setting winter. Listing inventories remain subdued at just 226 condos including 13 Westin Monache suites being auctioned by the developer, Intrawest.

The weather was also a likely factor in lower sales figures for homes. Just 31 units sold in the first half of 2011 down from 40 homes sold in last year's first half.. The median price of a home sold in the first half of 2011 moderated to $680,000 from 2010's median of $723,250. REO's and short sales comprised just 26% of the sold market compared with 42.5% for the same period last year. Of the 68 active home listings at the end of the 1st half, 8 were short sales or REO's.

Continued weakness in the housing markets has produced pessimism to rival the euphoria that propelled housing to record heights in 2006. In such a climate it's easy to forget that markets are cyclical. Only the timing is uncertain. Warren Buffet in a recent Bloomberg interview predicted a strong recovery in housing in the next two to three years. Indeed, home builders are projected to build over 700,000 new units this year, below historic levels yet higher than the approximately 500,000 homes constructed a year ago.

"Be bold when others are fearful," has been a guiding investment philosophy for the Oracle of Omaha. Good advice too for anyone contemplating the bargain pricies of Mammoth real estate.

FIRST QUARTER RESULTS REVEAL BARGAIN SHOPPERS

2011-05-16T17:04:00.000-07:00

Prices continued to moderate in the first quarter of 2011. The median price for a sold condo for the period was $222,500 off 14% from the previous quarter and down 23% from the first quarter of 2010.

78 condos changed hands compared with 87 a year ago and the 141 condos sold in the final quarter of 2010. Bank owned (REO) and short sale listings made up nearly 50% of all condo closings in the first quarter of this year, an increase of slightly less than 10% from the year ago period.

Home sales totaled 11 in the first quarter of 2011, down from 17 sold in the same quarter last year. The median price of a sold home was $765,000, just $5000 off 2010's first quarter median but up sharply from the $649,000 median price of homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Only 2 homes transacted in this year's first quarter belonged to banks or were sold short compared with 40% of homes sold in the first quarter of 2010 and 58% in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile price pressure is not coming from an oversupply as listing inventories remain fairly stable. There are 50 homes currently on the market and 203 condos, including 17 bank owned and 27 short sale listings. Rather, price pressure is coming from the distressed sector—REO's and short sales.

THE APRIL PHILLIPS FLASH

2011-04-15T13:50:00.000-07:00

APRIL SNOWFALL NUDGES MAMMOTH TOTALS HIGHER

2011-04-12T16:03:00.000-07:00

A cold April storm dropped another 18 inches of snow on Mammoth Mountain last week pushing this season's already record setting snowfall further into unseen territory. As of April 12, the Mountain was reporting 624 total inches of snow for the season and has already announced the lifts will keep running until July 4th. Plan on a ski-bike-golf triathlon sometime in June.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN BREAKS 600 INCHES!

2011-03-27T10:58:00.000-07:00

This morning Mammoth Mountain Ski Area reported a season's snowfall total of 606 inches--50 and a half feet--two feet more than the previous record set in 2005-2006. And it's only March.

Still the sun came out yesterday, the streets are clear and ski patrol is working hard on opening up the whole mountain. The forecast is for warmer temperatures, clear skies and epic skiing.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL RECORD SHATTERED. 600" THIS WEEKEND!

2011-03-25T11:48:00.000-07:00

One Mammoth Neighborhood

As predicted in yesterday's Flash an overnight storm brought the season's snowfall total for Mammoth Mountain to 589 inches easily eclipsing the 2005-2006 forty year record of 578.5 inches. More snow is forecast for tonight and through Saturday. The fifty foot benchmark will fall this weekend. It's not too late to pack the car and drive to Mammoth for this historic event. Five stories, 50 feet, 600 inches of snow! Don't miss it.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN APPROACHES RECORD SNOWFALL

2011-03-24T14:25:00.000-07:00

You could be here when it happens. If you hurry. "Yeah, I was in Mammoth," you'll be able to tell your grand kids. "I was in Mammoth when the Mountain topped 50 feet of snow."

Fifty feet. 600 inches. Five stories! The record set in the 2005-2006 season, a seemingly insurmountable 578.5 inches, will be history by the time this posts. At 10:00 a.m. we were a piddling 16 inches away and it's been snowing rats and hogs ever since. No, the record's a goner. But the big five-o, the magic 600, now that's something.

Maybe we should have seen it coming. After all the Mammoth ski season got off to the best possible start, a record 209 inches in December. But this was a La Niña year, unpredictable as a three year old in a petting zoo. January was quiet. February a bit above average. Then wham, a monster March, that has locals reaching for liquor and analgesics. Snow piled beyond the seldom seen 500, snowballing toward the never seen 600 inches.

So grab your gear, pack up the car and don't forget your camera. This is gonna be great!

MAMMOTH LAKES: THE BRIDGE TO SOMEWHERE?

2011-02-26T19:47:00.000-08:00

The skier bridge over Forest Trail has finally been completed. Here's the back story:

In the early 1990's a group of Mammoth landowners hatched a plan to redevelop the fading commercial district centered at Canyon and Minaret Roads. They dubbed this 64 acre expanse the North Village. What these pioneers envisioned was a new town center to replace the incoherent hodge podge of strip malls, isolated shops, gas stations and solitary businesses that had sprung up, without real planning or attention to theme, to become the Town of Mammoth Lakes.

When Intrawest, fresh from triumphs at the Whistler/Blacomb and Tremblant ski resorts in Canada, purchased 33% of Mammoth Mountain Ski Area in 1996 they acquired the Mountain's real estate interests as well, including 14 key acres in the heart of the proposed North Village. The Canadian company quickly began drawing plans.

Their proposal created excitement. Not only did Intrawest have the clout to pull off a project the size of the North Village that might transform Mammoth's identity, they seemed to have the vision as well.

Full color glossy marketing material from 2002 show condo/hotels--White Mountain Lodge, Lincoln House, and Grand Sierra Lodge--assembled around a lively gondola plaza and bustling pedestrian promenade. At the end of the promenade a bridge spans Forest Trail, connecting the Village to a ski back trail winding through the nearby woods.

After nearly a decade it's finally here. The bridge opened on February 11th in a ribbon cutting ceremony dampened by weather, diminished expectations, escalating gasoline prices and a $30 million dollar judgment against the Town of Mammoth Lakes. Still you can now ski from Hanzel and Gretel right into The Village for a midday sandwich or Kioki coffee. So wax em up, you'll feel better after lunch.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN: FEBRUARY STORM DROPS 5-7 FEET

2011-02-20T12:35:00.000-08:00

After a record snowfall in December and a nearly dry January, a four day storm system arrived February 16th and dumped 5 to 7 feet of dry snow on Mammoth Mountain's slopes setting up an epic President's Day weekend.

Many locals were calling the powder skiing some of best they'd ever seen. "It was thigh to waist deep in the Avi Chutes," local resident and powder hound Jon Lonne told the Flash about his Friday morning outing. "The only reason I quit was that my legs were shot."

Before the season weather prognosticators had warned that a large La Nina cold water mass in the Pacific could produce extremes of both wet and dry this year and so far they've been proved right. December's record 209 inches was followed by a mere dusting of 29 inches of snowfall in January.

The latest storm brings the season snowfall total up to a comfortable 394 inches, nearly 50 inches above the 40 year annual average and just 20 inches below the average for the past 10 years. More snow is expected by the weekend.

MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN SKI AREA PLANS EAGLE BASE LODGE

2011-01-30T17:21:00.000-08:00

Mammoth Mountain Ski Area hopes to begin constructing the long delayed base facility at Eagle Express (chair 15) in early 2012 according to MMSA director of planning and development, Tom Hodges.

The ski area is soliciting architectural treatments for a 40,000 square foot lodge that will replace the two temporary Little Eagle "tents" of just 15,000 square feet the Mountain has operated out of for nearly a decade.

Little Eagle 'Tents' and Eagle Express Chair

All the usual base services will be housed in the new building including, ticket sales, ski school, rentals, sport and repair shops, lockers and a cafeteria. The Mountain hopes to have the facility open by the winter of 2013-2014.

Although MMSA has another 4 1/2 years of authority to use the temporary structures, Hodges said that visitors, who have made Eagle Run as popular as the Main Lodge in recent years, "deserve better."

The weak development environment has, for now, thwarted ambitions to combine the base lodge with a condo/hotel real estate venture as initially planned, but the design will allow for future developments.

HEATING SYSTEM FAULT CLOSES THE MAMMOTH WESTIN FOR A WEEK

2011-01-28T15:54:00.000-08:00

Temporary Boiler On Line Thursday Morning

The Westin Monache, Mammoth's lone 4 star hotel, was closed Wednesday, January 19, due to smoke coming from the heating system's flue. The exhaust flue of the hotel's propane fired boiler overheated causing insulation material to smolder inside the nine story flue chase. Smoke was sucked into the building's ventilation system and circulated to many of the rooms. The boiler had to be shut down and guests were relocated to neighboring lodging.

After a week of cleanup and air filtering, the heating system was coupled to an industrial looking boiler chugging away outside the hotel entry. By the evening of Thursday the 27th, the Westin was ready to receive guests again. An investigation is underway to sort out the cause of the malfunction.

2010 Mammoth Real Estate Sales Climb

2011-01-22T12:46:00.000-08:00

Sales were up last year as buyers discovered value in Mammoth real estate. 371 condos changed hands in 2010, a 25% jump over the 295 sold in 2009. The total value of sold condos climbed 15% to $131 million from 2009's total of $114 million.

Single family transactions were also higher. Escrows closed on 72 homes worth nearly $62 million in 2010 compared with 62 homes transacted in 2009 valued at $50 million.

The median price of sold properties eased last year, 14% for condos ($279,750), and 6% for single family homes ($625,000). Of more interest, the percentage of sales attributed to motivated sellers of "distressed" real estate shot up. Bank owned properties (REO's), short sales and auctioned real estate constituted 36% of condos and 39% of sold homes in 2010.

The flow of distressed properties to the market can be erratic and their shelf life brief. For instance, REO's and short sale listings comprise only 9% of homes and 17% of condos currently listed. These bargains often fall quickly to nimble buyers who've scouted the market and know what they're after. So while more troubled real estate assets are on the way, buyers should research the market, line up financing and enlist the aid of a REALTOR®.

MAMMOTH THANKSGIVING

2010-11-29T17:06:00.000-08:00

La Nina winters like this one, characterized by cold water bunched up off the coast of Peru, are tricksters. They can be either cold and wet or cold and dry. They can come late and end early or arrive early and end late. Often they portend the formation of a blocking ridge of high pressure that forces systems north through Oregon, Washington and Canada. Or not.

A series of increasingly cold storms began Friday the 19th, and by Thursday the Mountain had recorded 7 feet. For the first Thanksgiving in 6 years all the lifts were operating.

We can rule out late. Now the weatherman thinks winter might end early.

THIRD QUARTER REAL ESTATE

2010-10-26T13:02:00.000-07:00

If you're Glen Beck you're hoarding gold and lining up food insurance against the onrushing apocalypse. If you're Sara Palin you're stocking up on tea bags and counting the days until the next presidential election. But if you're hoping to buy or sell a piece of Mammoth real estate what do you do?

As reported earlier in The Flash condo and home sales both jumped in the first half of this year. Since most were purchased as second homes or investment properties the government tax rebates for primary residences bore little responsibility for this surge. Likewise, the cooling off of third quarter sales can not be blamed on the expiration of these tax incentives.

The number of condos sold rose less than 3% in the July to October quarter just ended over the same quarter in 2009, while the median condo price slumped 8.6% to $265,000. Condo transactions attributed to short sales or REO's surged from 19% in quarter three of '09 to 49% in this year's third quarter.

Eleven homes were sold in the third quarter of this year, off 52% from the 23 homes sold in the 3rd quarter of 2009. REO's held steady at about a fourth of homes sold in Mammoth.

Expectations of a continued stream of bank repossessions have been clouded by questions regarding the propriety of the foreclosure process. Attorney's general in all 50 states are investigating. Accounts of thousands of documents being signed by speed reading clerks in a single day suggests that vast numbers of foreclosures need to be reviewed, some rescinded. We'll know more about the flow of foreclosures in a few weeks. Stay tuned.

The Flash

2010-09-08T19:23:00.000-07:00

COLLEGE KIDS

2010-06-10T14:31:00.000-07:00

A number of years ago my wife Barbara and I sold our house, bought a motor home and hit the road. We worked our way slowly up the Pacific coast visiting friends, sightseeing and hanging out. It was July by the time we reached Washington and the silver salmon were running near the mouth of the Columbia. We holed up in a spartan campground near Ilwaco on the Washington side of the river and I got outfitted with barrel bobbers, snelled hooks and frozen herring at a local tackle shop. The next day I caught a nice coho fishing off the large boulders of the Ilwaco jetty.

A week later near the Canadian border I figured to get some final use out of my Washington state angler's license. Maybe slide our new canoe into one of the bays and pick up another salmon. So in the little town of Blaine I went looking for information at the only facsimile of a sporting goods store around, the Coast to Coast Hardware.

There was no one in the tackle section. No men around at all. Just two older women working on a Weed-Eater display. One was on an aluminum step-ladder struggling to hang the machine by heavy mono-filiment fishing line. I sidled up to her ladder.

"Excuse me, would you have any idea how the fishing has been?"

"Blanche?" she hollered over her shoulder.

Blanche reappeared from the storage room with a long handled framing hammer.

"Blanche, how's fishing been?"

Blanche passed the hammer up to Marge and sized me up. "What are you after?" She stepped right next to me as if trying to guess by my scent.

"Salmon, steelhead, sea run cutthroats. Whatever's in," I said backing away.

"Slow." She motioned for Marge to move her nail our farther and triangulate the suspension.

"They must be catching something," I prodded.

"There might be a few but it's slow. Real slow. Been slow all year."

"Well, what have they been using?"

"I don't think much of anything's been working, eh Marge?"

"How's this look?" Marge held the line out. Leaning. Precarious. I found myself holding onto the ladder.

"Fine," Blanche said. Then she turned back to me with a look that suggested only a peevish discussion could follow.

I pressed ahead. "Are there other tackle shops in town? Maybe someone's heard how it's been in the last few days." Suddenly the ladder flexed. Marge lashed out awkwardly with the long handled hammer, fanning on the nail and punching a clean hole in the ceiling. Drywall dust and chipped paint settled on my arm.

"Damn!"

"Don't worry about it. Try closer in"

Marge fished another nail from her teeth, held it at a comfortable distance and set it with a single temperate blow.

"Marge, anyone down to the marina know about fishing since Dave Gundarson's laid up?"

"Dave Gundarson? There's a human tragedy." Marge climbed down the ladder. She was older than I'd thought and her lipstick, Senior Citizen Red, scrawled two fantastic arches above her mouth like some garish entry to a 1940's tunnel of love. "Crabbing out on Lou Myrek's boat," she said out of the tunnel. "Some college kid on the winch. Didn't catch Dave 'til he was halfway through the pulley. Damn kid was probably asleep. Or even drunk."

"A real shame," Blanche said.

"Dave never got right."

"No, he's not right yet."

"College kids!"

"Mind or body."

"Like a crab himself now."

"Yes. All hunched over on that broken side."

"Don't blame him for drinking."

"I can't blame him."

"A real pity though. Never missed a day's work in all his life."

"Wife and kids run off to Texas. Back to her family, I guess."

"Never missed a day and never complained."

"Anyway, she couldn't stand it. And the two boys just barely along in grammar school."

"College kids!"

"No one deserves that. She should have stuck with her man."

"Come up on vacation with their daddies and think it'd be a lark to crew a boat."

Blanche looked at Marge. "Don't any of 'em know work or responsibility."

"Had it all handed."

"Hook, line and sinker."

"And bait."

"Especially bait."

The Weed-Eater hung there green and shiny and ready for action. It seemed out of place in that rugged rural community with few lawns. The forest pushed right up to where salt grass and sand dunes meet the ocean. I thanked the ladies and headed out of the store. Blanche followed me. At the door I turned to nod goodbye.

"It's been slow here," she said in a distant thoughtful way. "Real slow."

SALES UP, INTEREST RATES DOWN, TAX CREDITS EVEN

2010-05-28T14:25:00.003-07:00

New numbers from the National Association of Realtors seem to suggest that the US real estate market has turned the corner. Sales of homes and condos for April 2010 were 22.8% higher than for the same period last year while median prices rose in almost 60% of US metropolitan markets. Lawrence Yun, the frequently optimistic chief economist for the NAR said, "The housing price correction appears essentially over."

While admitting that April's strong numbers were likely influenced by an expiring $8000 Federal tax credit and acknowledging that "there will be some fallback" in the next few months, Yun cited near record low interest rates (around 5% for a 30 year fixed rate loan), growing buyer confidence and an improving economy in calling for a turnaround.

To counter the expiring Federal credit, California is offering $200 million in tax credits to first time buyers or buyers of new homes. The credit, up to $10,000 or 5% of the purchase price whichever is less, only apply to purchases of principal residences. Qualifying properties include condos, mobile homes, and single family residences but not homes constructed by taxpayers.

Still, mortgage delinquency rates continue to weigh on real estate price gains. Figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association last week show that the number of delinquent mortgages across the country has not declined much in the last year. This could portend a steady stream of foreclosures.

In a news release the MBA's chief economist, Jay Brinkmann, offered tepid encouragement,"If mortgage delinquencies are not yet clearly improving, it also appears they are not getting worse." On the up side according to Brinkman, California's mortgage picture, once among the bleakest, is now getting brighter.

SOMETHING AFFORDABLE

2010-05-13T13:58:00.000-07:00

I'd never abandoned clients before but I was going to now. "Get out!" I said puffing myself up like Arnold Schwartzenegger in The Terminator. "And take Scooter with you."

I wanted to see the look on their faces when it registered that I retained some measure of self respect, that I wasn't going to cling pathetically to the slim possibility of making a sale. At any cost.

"But...," Mrs. Brown pleaded, "Couldn't you at least take us back to our car?"

"Now!" I ordered pulling abruptly to the curb and stomping on the brakes.

"Harold!" Mrs. Brown, thinking about the long walk back to my office, the humiliation, begged for her husband to intercede.

"Listen, I admit things could have gone better back there but really, there wasn't any serious damage and we'll replace the stuffed pigeon. Won't we Helen."

Helen nodded but doubt clouded her face as she imagined the replacement's actual cost.

"I found this," Burton said sheepishly as he passed a video game cartridge over the seat.

"What a nice thing to do, Burty," Mrs. Brown said. "I'm sure the owner's children will be very glad you found this." She gave her young son a big hug.

"Why don't we take you to lunch," Mr. Brown suggested, all business suddenly. "I'd like to discuss financing with you." He turned to his family in the back seat. "How's lunch sound gang? Who wants a Big Mac?"

Jenny and Burton cheered. Mrs. Brown pulled herself between the front seats and looked up at me with large spaniel eyes. "Big Mac?" she prompted with a nod and a grin.

I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror standing there, chastened as I pulled away, but...

It all started ordinarily enough. The well traveled tan Suburban lurched into our lot and a teen aged boy and girl spilled out looking green and road sick. Mr. Brown, a balding man with an American paunch, strode in carrying one of our real estate guides. Mrs. Brown, her treated blond hair a frizzy cloud, made a bee line for the bathroom. They wanted to see houses. Big pricey houses.

It had been a slow morning and my antennae were down. Thinking back on it now their manner had been too casual, too offhanded. But, as I said, it had been slow and you never know.

Mr. Brown asked if we could take my car since theirs was stuffed with bikes, fishing gear, and luggage. And did I mind if Scooter rode along. Scooter was what I'd call a yappy dog, "lively", I believe the Browns put it. A small foreign short hair bred for rodent work.

I haven't always disliked dogs. We had dogs when I was a boy. Dim witted, affectionate labs. But after living in Mammoth in a home with the only lawn in a five block radius I developed an aversion. But I wanted to bond with my clients so I told them Scooter could ride in the back of my Subaru Outback wagon.

We looked at a couple of houses without incident. Jenny, maybe fifteen and Burton thirteen traipsed behind us acting bored and exhausted as I expected they would. These were nice mountain homes but without family features like a back yard or game room.

Finally, I pulled into the driveway of the property I'd been saving. There was a large yard in back with swings and the yard bordered a deep pine woods. The kids bounded out of the car before I'd come to a stop. Scooter shot over the back seat after them.

"Well, it looks like the kids have cast their vote," I said.

Opening onto the back yard was a family room with a pool table, large screen TV and Nintendo. I showed the Browns the two downstairs bedrooms with a Jack and Jill bath and then took them upstairs to the living quarters. Personal treasures of the owners decorated dressers, coffee tables and the fireplace mantle.

Mr. Brown tested the couch. Mrs. Brown examined the kitchen. We heard giggling downstairs as the kids came in and began to shoot pool. The Browns looked relieved that their children had found entertainment.

"Look Harold they have Lennox china. Did you say this was a second home?" Mrs. Brown was going through the cupboards one by one.

"Yes, the owners only use it a couple weeks a year." Agents love to see their clients settle in, get comfortable, start to decorate. It was an $800,000 home after all and automatically I began to calculate my commission.

Mr. Brown had turned on the TV and was clicking through the channels. He stopped at Oprah. There was a transexual on. It appeared that she'd discovered she was a lesbian. Mrs. Brown headed for the master bedroom. Outside Scooter had treed a cat and was circling the trunk barking wildly.

"My word, have you ever seen so many shoes?" Mrs. Brown called from the master closet.

On Oprah the transexual was in tears. A lesbian! If she'd just stayed a man. There would have been so many more possibilities. "Gee whiz," Mr. Brown got up and located a beer in the fridge. Downstairs the kids were fighting over a video game.

"I got you again," I could hear Burton say. "This isn't even fun."

"My button got stuck," Jenny screamed. "I couldn't move."

"Liar, liar, pants on fire."

"It sticks. You try to win with this controller."

"Harry, come here. I think they have a bidet," Mrs. Brown called from the master suite.

"A bidet?…in a minute. I want to see if this person gets a date." I heard the master bathroom door close quietly.

"See you're dead. It doesn't matter. You're just a dumb girl. Girls can't play video games."

"I hate you!" Jenny screamed. I heard the game controller smash against a wall.

"Nice going, Jenny," Burton yelled.

Just then the doorbell rang. I ran downstairs to answer it. It was an animal control officer looking put out. I ran back upstairs to get Mr. Brown. "Have one of the kids bring Scooter in," he said without taking his eyes off the TV. Then yelling, "Burty can't you hear Scooter barking." I went back downstairs. The officer had his ticket book out.

"I'm a REALTOR®. I'm just showing the house," I said. "These folks are from out of town."

"Well you're not. Should have told them about the leash law. You can settle up with them."

"Come on. I'm not a dog fan myself. You could gas this one for all I care. Besides, one of the kids is fetching the animal now. We'll keep him inside." In fact no one was doing anything and Scooter was still barking and circling.

The officer looked at me. "So, you're the agent?" I nodded. "Well you're all a pack of liars far as I'm concerned. An agent ripped me off when I bought my house. Told me the roof would be fixed and nothing happened. Never returns my phone calls now. Leaks like hell. Going to cost me two grand not counting the carpet. And furniture."

"I'm sorry you had a bad experience. But that wasn't me. Besides, you should have some legal recourse. If there was an agreement to fix the roof the seller will have to pay. It's the law."

"So is this," he said. "Now you want to give me your name or do I have to call in your plates?"

I stuffed the ticket in my pocket and slunk back upstairs. Mr. Brown had helped himself to another beer and was snacking on some peanuts.

"Look," Mr. Brown jumped up and pointed at the screen. "I told you she'd get a date!" He munched his peanuts excitedly. "And a nice looking college girl, too."

"That's really something," I muttered.

Harold drained his beer and slammed the empty can down on the lamp table knocking a stuffed California quail onto the floor. The brittle thin legs snapped in two.

"Oops, damn pigeon." He tried to shove the parts back together. Feathers settled on the carpet "Helen, we ought to go." He held the bird parts and two empty beer cans out to me. "Helen!"

Helen emerged from the bedroom looking refreshed. "This is a very nice home, don't you think Harold? What happened to the bird?"

"Accident," Harold said. "Was this the last place you had for us? Burty, Jenny, we're leaving."

"Yeah."

"Kind of expensive don't you think."

"Well we're in a strengthening market, and if you consider the National Forest location…"

"Saddle up troopers," he yelled.

"…it's actually quite a bargain." But my heart was no longer in it.

The kids were still fighting as they climbed into the car. Scooter had rolled in something and Helen and Harold were busy chatting about the horse back ride they'd scheduled for the afternoon. Finally, Harold turned to me. "Be sure to give me your card. You know what we're looking for so stay in touch."

"I'm not sure I do, really. Four bedrooms, 3 baths with a family room?" I gestured to the home we'd just seen.

"Great!"

Driving back through The Village with all the windows down I had my Arnold moment. I just snapped. I pulled to the curb and braked so hard everyone slammed against their seat belts. "Get out!" I wanted to see them in my rear view mirror huddled on the sidewalk, chastened as I pulled away.

No one moved.

One summer I lived in Tangier, Morocco in a small apartment a friend of my brother's had found for me. It was in the medina, the old quarter, and not far from the friend's antique and curio shop. I used to hang out in the shop and watch Majid work the tourists fresh off of the cruise ships anchoring in the bay. He had an infallible sense of who was really shopping and who was merely playing at haggling. Majid would cleverly outrage the pretenders and expertly negotiate with the buyers.

Finally, one by one the Browns got out of the car. Scooter jumped down from behind the back seat and slunk onto the sidewalk, his tail tucked.

Before closing the door Harold leaned in, "We're just looking for something affordable," he said. "Is that so bad?"

No one told me selling real estate was going to be easy. Or even enjoyable. You take whoever walks through the door. You do your best. Sometimes you make a sale. Sometimes you get a Big Mac. I didn't talk about financing with the Browns. We didn't talk about much of anything.

HEDGE FUND GIANT SAYS, "BUY!"

2010-05-12T13:14:00.000-07:00

John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who pulled down nearly $4 billion by making bets against the housing market in 2007, has turned bullish on real estate. In a May 10 online article for Market Watch, Alistair Barr wrote that Paulson is calling for appreciation of 3% to 5% in home prices this year and another 8% to 12% in 2011.

"My advice to all Americans—if you don't own a home today now's the time to buy one," Paulson said. "If you already own one, now's the time to buy another one. If you already own two, it's time to help your children buy a home."

The comments were made in a conference call Monday to investors in his $34 billion Paulson and Company hedge funds. Paulson noted that when incomes, mortgage rates and median prices are considered, homes are at their most affordable levels in 50 years. He cited the 290,000 jobs added to payrolls last month, low mortgage rates and rising corporate profits in predicting 4-5% GDP growth in 2011 and a sharp V shaped economic recovery.

Data released by the National Association of Realtors last week support Paulson's optimism. Home prices rose in most U.S. cities in the first quarter, loan delinquencies declined and the number of pending sales were up 21.1% over March of 2009.

Of course, the future is never entirely clear and not everyone is so sanguine. Many point out that first time home buyer Federal tax credits, which expired last month, likely skewed sales figures higher. And troubled mortgage behemoths Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae both expect housing to show weakness through the rest of 2010. Still, as John Paulson's success illustrates, those who anticipate the market may reap big rewards.

PACE OF REO'S, SHORT SALES SLOWS

2010-04-30T12:14:00.000-07:00

Have real estate values in Mammoth turned the corner? Are foreclosures drying up? Buyers and Sellers facing the old buy, sell, or hold conundrum should take note of the following year to date sales and listing figures. Since January 1st, 165 condos have sold or are in escrow (291 sold in all of '09). Of those 29 were REO's (lender owned) and another 37 were short sales–40% of this year's total. 40 homes have gone into escrow or sold since the first of the year (65 homes sold in '09). 8 were REO's and 8 were short sales, also 40% of the total.

The median price of sold condos edged up in the first 4 months to $328,000 from $325,000 last year, a statistical wash. While the median price of homes sold this year eased to $731,000 from 2009's median of $799,567. That's an 8.5% drop. Although median prices are a coarse market metric especially in a small sample, it's fair to say that home prices are still slipping while condo values are stabilizing.

Where do we go from here? Of the 175 condos currently for sale, just 5 are REO's and 27 are short sale listings. 66 homes are on the market and only 4 are REO's or short sale listings. Does this mean that the flood of distressed properties has abated? Any slowing would be good news for Mammoth property owners and portend firming prices, but the picture is still not entirely clear.

Barclays Capital in New York calculated that as of the end of February 4.6 million homeowners nationwide were 90 days late on their mortgage payments according to an April 28 online Wall Street Journal report. But the experts can't seem to agree on how many of those delinquent home loans will translate into foreclosures or short sales. Barclays thinks 1.6 million this year and in 2011, and another 1.5 million in 2012.

Mammoth with its limited private real estate base is a unique market and may be somewhat immune to national foreclosure trends, but Buyers still need to shop smart. And if you are a Seller, listen to your REALTOR® when it comes to setting an asking price. We're selling properties priced right, but set your sights too high and you may end up chasing the market down.

MAMMOTH BOASTS A 15 FOOT BASE

2010-04-14T14:31:00.000-07:00

Mammoth Mountain has recorded 515 inches of snowfall this season, the most since the record setting 578 inch 2005-2006 season. The average annual snowfall since 1969 is 342.5 inches and this winter topped the averages for every month except November. Although Canyon Lodge and Eagle Express will be closing after this weekend the Mountain recently announced that, with a 15 foot base, operations at the Main Lodge would continue through the Fourth of July. So don't put those skis away just yet.

Federal and State Home Buyers Tax Credits

2010-03-30T12:44:00.000-07:00

The popular Federal first time home buyer's tax credit is due to expire soon. To qualify for as much as $8000 in tax credits, buyers of principal residences must open valid escrows by the end of April and close the purchase by the end of June.

A buyer is eligible for the full credit (the lower of 10% of the purchase price or $8000) if the home being acquired is their first in the last three years. A smaller credit of up to $6500 is available to those who've owned a home five out of the last eight years. Purchase prices must be below $800,000 and buyer incomes can not exceed $250,000 per couple or $125,000 for individuals. There's a nice synopsis on the National Association of Homebuilders site. And be sure to talk with your accountant.

In more good news for home buyers Governor Schwarzenegger was expected to sign a bill authorizing credits for Californians buying their first home. The credit would apply to new or existing homes purchased between May 1, 2010 and the end of the year or who enter into a purchase contract on or before December 31, 2010 and close on the transaction by August 1, 2011. The credit is the lesser of 5% of the purchase price or $10,000. The credit will be doled out over three consecutive years in equal amounts. California requires buyers to live in their new primary residence for 2 years (the Federal requirement is 3 years). Again, talk with your tax man about the details of the new California program. Click the link for a C.A.R. side by side comparison of state and Federal plans. And talk to me about qualifying homes in Mammoth!

THEY'RE BAA-AACK.

2010-03-10T12:14:00.000-08:00

It's the return of the Kool-Aid drinkers. The starry eyed marketeers. Yes, the fractionals.

Never mind that Mammoth has been a graveyard for every "fractional" ownership development since, well, forever. Tyvek paper flaps in the breeze on unfinished fractional homes at Talus on the 10th fairway at Sierra Star. Tanavista, 45 units at The Village pared into "value priced" quarter share fractionals, is still nothing but dirt. It's sales team, once armed with high priced brochures, architectural renderings, and reservation instruments quietly scurried out of town after but a few month's in 2007. Altis, visioned as 24 exclusive slopeside townhomes—fractionalized into 1/7th's priced from the mid $500's—parachuted marketing hot shots in (from where, Tahoe?) just as real estate was poised for it's black diamond plunge. Proud Altis has been reduced to a pair of wholly owned duplexes. And now 80/50, near the Village Gondola, which has been operating on the thin vapor of 54 sold fractions--out of 224--since it first rolled out to much hoopla in 2006, is back.

I know it's back because iStar Financial, the new owner, treated me to lunch. Matt Toomey, the highly regarded chef at the highly regarded Whoa Nellie Deli in Lee Vining, served local agents ceviche, fish tacos, sliders and ceasar salad in one of 80/50's 3 bedroom "residences". Reminded me of the old days. Back when the Ritz team tried to convince us over lamb chops and potatoes lyonnaise that despite tumbling real estate values the Ritz was a different product—uncompromised quality—with a different clientele—rich folk willing to pay the $1400/s.f. tariff. Indeed, the Ritz team was freshly returned from a Southern California blitz where they'd collected another 30 reservations! Reservations from aristocrats begging to be unburdened of their surfeit of cash. The Ritz property was foreclosed on two years later. Pass the chops.

Despite the familiar treats, the 80/50 presentation felt different. It was a somewhat staid affair. Katie Morris representing, iStar Financial, was pregnant and resolute. She and her "dream team" of managers and sales staff would persevere to the end. iStar had the financial clout—38 million square feet of commercial real estate, $12 billion in assets—to see this through. It was a far cry from the Amway-like cheerleading at the original launch where glassy eyed salesfolk got so pumped up on Kool-Aid and testimonials they were ready to jump off the roof supported by nothing but talking points (some did and spent time in veritable traction).

After lunch Elizabeth McGuire, 80/50's sales team leader, gave us a tour. The sun shone brilliantly on the three steamy roof top spas. The March air was crisp and clear. Below us a private sky bridge spanned to the Village Gondola. Inside chromed exercise equipment stood idle, poised for guests. Later the valet smiled and waved as we drove off with our packets of marketing tools.

Back at my office I practiced batting away objections from hypothetical buyers and realized that no one at the luncheon had discussed financials. Try as I would one number kept returning like a meat bee to a bar-be-que, HOA dues. The 3 bedroom fractions are priced at $299,000, the dues run $12,400 per year. An owner is guaranteed 4 weeks annually. That's over $3000 per week in dues. Jeez. Even when you factor in the ability to exchange unused weeks for stays at other Elite Alliance properties (for a $250 fee) it seems impossible to rationalize.

But maybe that's just me. One bedroom fractions are priced at $125,000; 2 bedrooms, at $175,000. For more information give me a call. I've got your Kool-Aid. Grape. Lot's of sugar.

Gran Fondo Sportful

2010-03-02T17:38:00.000-08:00

The before,

and after

pictures of my wife Barbara and I at the 131 mile Gran Fondo Sportful bike race through the Dolomites out of Feltre, Italy last summer. Hard to tell but one of us made the podium!

Latest Newsletter

2010-02-21T17:54:00.000-08:00

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Whistler Auction Averted

2010-02-18T13:20:00.000-08:00

According to Reuters creditors agreed to postpone a foreclosure auction scheduled for tomorrow of the Whistler-Blacomb Ski Area, site of this year's winter Olympics alpine events. Fortress Investments which acquired the resort in a 2006 leveraged buyout, missed a $524 million payment due last December on a loan of $1.7 billion. The auction has been reset for February 26. Among the expected bidders, Vail Resorts, whose ski holdings include Vail, Breckenridge, and Heavenly Valley.

Fortunes for Fortress have plunged since its acquisition of Intrawest. Its stock closed at $4.20 today down from around $35 when the purchase of Intrawest was completed. Meanwhile, Joe Houssian, founder and former CEO of Intrawest, escaped with an estimated $133 million profit from the sale of his company's stock to Fortress. He is now a principal in Vancouver, BC based private equity firm, Intracorp Capital. Houssian is also involved in several green energy ventures and the real estate development and management company, Replay.

Whistler Could Go on the Auction Block During the Olympics

2010-02-06T17:43:00.000-08:00

According to the Toronto Globe and Mail Whistler/Blackomb Ski Area's creditors could put the Canadian resort on the auction block in the middle of this month's Winter Olympics. Fortress Investments, a private equity and hedge fund, acquired the resort in a leveraged buyout of Intrawest in 2006 for a reported $2.8 billion including existing debt. Fortress borrowed $1.7 billion to close the deal. Intrawest/Fortress missed a $524 million payment in December after receiving a 2 month payment extension and its creditors, which include Lehmen Brothers, began foreclosure proceedings.

In 2006, at the time of the acquisition, real estate was nearing its peak. Since then values have plummeted along with real estate sales forcing Intrawest to try to service it's debt through resort operations. An impossible task. As a result Intrawest has been shedding lesser properties to reduce debt in an effort to hang onto key resorts like Whistler, Mont Tremblant and Blue Mountain in Ontario. Among the departed Panorama in B.C., Copper Mountain in Colorado and the Village at Squaw Valley, California. Even the remnants of Intrawest's Mammoth holdings-- two Altis townhomes, one Woodwinds condo and a few Westin units--have been reduced for clearance. Will this be enough to stave off foreclosure? Without major debt restructuring or bankruptcy, probably not. But I think the Games will go on without a hint of disruption.

Six Feet

2010-01-21T15:13:00.001-08:00

As of 3:15 pm, Mammoth Mountain Ski Area is reporting 6 feet of new snow in the current storm cycle that began on Sunday night. And it is snowing heavily. Lots of freshies for everyone.

Big Snow

2010-01-20T12:36:00.000-08:00

Mammoth is being assaulted by the third in a series of four major snowstorms. Weather services are calling for 2 to 4 additional feet by Thursday afternoon. The fourth storm is predicted to be milder. Snow levels could dip to 4200 feet and affect the Owens Valley and Bishop. Bring your powder skis.

Climbing The Walls: An Open House Primer

2008-03-30T14:15:00.000-07:00

I'd rather walk through hot coals in a chicken suit…wearing a sandwich board," Ted, an agent friend of mine, once told me, "than sit an open house."

That sounded a bit overwrought considering we were , at that moment, greedily wolfing down a plate of Angel's onion rings, barbeque sauce and grease slathering our faces like finalists in a rib eating contest.

"Really? Hot coals? Chicken suit? Come on, Ted, a sandwich board?" I asked skeptically, blotting my face with a beach sized bar towel.

Ted nodded. "Any day of the week." He worked a big fistful of rings into his mouth and herded them into the corral of one cheek. "And twithe on Thundays," he added.

My friend's aversion to open houses may be extreme but, as I later discovered, the general sentiment is not.

I don't know one agent who looks forward to sitting houses open. It's like being placed under house arrest for no satisfying reason. You're trapped, isolated and criminally bored. Although open houses are part of the salesman's craft, agents go out of their way to avoid them. They push them to the back of their schedules like stubborn children shoving lima beans to the back of their dinner plates. They make excuses, book root canals, feign insanity

A nagging sort of discomfort commences with the signing process. You catch the flicker of a hostile hand gesture through the glare of a passing car's window while packing your signs with the big arrows across a busy intersection. Sure it could be meant for someone else.

As you anchor one sign to a snow stake with a length of bailing wire the shouted advice to "get a real job" issues from a second car followed by "do you want to get knocked out?"

Guessing that you're the target of these remarks reminds you that people don't like salesmen. Don't trust them. Come to think of it, you're not all that fond of salesmen yourself.

They call at awkward hours hawking credit cards, magazines, and charities. They show up at your door pedaling vacuums, cosmetics and religion. If you give them your name they're harder to shake than last winter's head cold. People need salesmen like they need dentists, mechanics and even lawyers, but they don't like them.

With your signs finally in place, you sprint for the opposite curb chased by a leering fat man squealing toward you in an army green pickup. An "I Brake For Realtors" sticker on the rusted bumper as the truck clatters by. You pretend to weed the sidewalk strip until the coast is clear.

Once safely inside your chosen property, and certain you haven't been followed, you lay out promotional fliers, business cards, real estate magazines. You settle onto the couch and snap on the TV. Then you wait. And wait. And wait some more.

It's the weekend. Outside people are biking, roller blading, throwing frisbees. Laughing. You think about your wife playing tennis in that skimpy little skirt that shows too much thigh. The club pro a tanned, notorious Lothario. But you're stuck. You pace the floor, chain surf TV channels, and shuffle through a stack of old client cards so cold they could ice down a charley horse.

Finally, after waiting for hours, sagging toward a catatonic stupor, you are jolted to life by the electrifying sound of car doors, footsteps. The door bell! You round up your wits and greet the couple with a practiced smile, a fresh business card and crisp full color flier.

Maybe it's the glimmer of interest you detect, or maybe it's just the mind numbing hours of waiting, but suddenly you are filled with enthusiasm. Suddenly, you see virtue in every aspect of every room. How could you have missed it? Yes, look how the bedrooms are laid out, cunningly separated by an intervening hallway! What a brilliant insinuation of privacy. Look!

You become intoxicated with the place, dazzled by its hidden magnificence. You parade your audience from room to room—some rooms twice—trumpeting a litany of attributes, gesticulating wildly like a wino conducting a phantom orchestra. The condo is wonderful, fabulous, perfect! Maybe you should buy the place yourself.

But just as you're about to hold forth on the drywall texture and toilet paper holders something catches your eye. A look on the wife's face. Skepticism? Well, you've seen that before. You can deal with that. No. It's something else. A look of…fear. Why, the wife is cowering behind her husband's shoulder and you notice for the first time they are an older couple. It appears that you've been chasing them. Indeed, you've cornered them in the only bathroom. Have them pinned against the shower door.

Trapped they huddle together, alarm growing on their faces, staring at you as if you're some mugger. Wondering whether to reach for their wallets. The husband sneaks a hand back to test the door.

My god, what are you doing? The prospect of having to coax these sweet old people out of the tub moves you to action. You take a step back. Call up an innocent school boy smile. Ask, "can I add you to my mailing list?"

Relieved they produce pens and scraps of paper scribble names and addresses. "Here," they shove these offerings at you and escape.

Back on the couch you calm yourself. You've got their names. You'll make it right. A nice friendly letter. Maybe a fruitcake or box of chocolates. You read the gum wrapper and ticket stub. 'Harry Herenot' and Doris Donegone'. Perhaps it wasn't their first open house.

As the tortuous hours grind by you phone a friend at another open house.

"Anybody?"

"One pair. A bathroom call. Husband came up for the brochure. 'Thanks a lot,' he said in a big hurry. I hollered after him 'For Pete's sake turn on the fan.' How about you?"

"A couple of names."

"Watching golf?"

"No, Gladiators."

So you wait, watch American Gladiators, glance out the window, think about food, that busing job at McDonalds. Against all odds there is another knock. Now you're ready, poised, reserved. You give this couple a nice tour.

"Just the one bath then?" the wife accuses, clutching her collar to her throat as if to seal out some contagion.

The property flier wilts in you hand. "Yes, you admit sheepishly.

The husband and wife exchange glances and regard you cooly. A note of condescension creeps into their voices. An element of pity.

"Well it's a good sized bath," the husband offers. As if to suggest maybe it was not your fault after all. More like you were the unwitting, yet pathetic, product of inbreeding—close set eyes, feeble intellect, a propensity to drool.

Recovering your professional equilibrium you ask, "Would you like to see something in the area with two baths?"

The couple sprout grins. "Oh no. No, we own a nice two bath unit across the street. But we'll take one of your cards."

It's at this point, with the female gladiators straining at their bungee cords, their impressive busts on the verge of freeing themselves and assaulting someone, the otherwise healthy contestants looking by contrast anemic, steroid deficient, helpless, lashed to their bungees. It's at this point, with the score tied, that you snap your business card from the husband's hand and march the couple to the door.

"There's no need to take my card. It's okay. I understand." Somehow you resist the almost overwhelming impulse to drool.

Turning back to the set you see Vixen (or Voluptua or Vesuvia) wrap her beefy thighs around the dental hygienist from Oklahoma. As they swing out of range of any scoring chance, Vixen pumps her fist in victory and the hygienist goes as limp as a cotton tail in the coils of a gopher snake.

You've had it. Enough is enough. Tomorrow you're going to do something more productive with your life. Tomorrow you're going to hold open a condo with 2 baths.

Then again, maybe you'll just fire up some coals and borrow Ted's chicken suit.

Business & Technology | Downtown Seattle hotel-condo project put on hold | Seattle Times Newspaper

2008-03-03T17:55:00.000-08:00

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004249876_1hotel29.html

Mammoth's Arrested Developments

2008-03-02T14:56:00.000-08:00

Since Intrawest successfully launched Juniper Springs Lodge in 1998, new developments have provided the spark to Mammoth's real estate market. But last year, for the second year in a row, no major new projects were launched. Unless reservations for the planned 131 Ritz-Residences continue at a satisfying pace, 2009 could be dry year number three.

Only The Chadmar Group, owners of future Snowcreek developments, is actively building. But work on Creekhouse near the Athletic Club will reportedly stop after the three buildings under construction are completed. Below is an update of projects planned for Mammoth:

Westin Monache--Mammoth's first four star hotel opened on the 27th of November. The 230 unit condo/hotel sold out quickly at prices up to $1200 per square foot in the brisk, speculative market of 2005. When Phase I escrows finally began closing last Fall market conditions had deteriorated and a number of buyers simply walked away from non-refundable 10% deposits. 30 units are back on the market priced from $399,999 in a tightening lending environment.

Ritz-Carlton Residences--Reservations are now being accepted for 131 luxury 1-4 bedroom Ritz Residences planned for the corner of Lake Mary Road and Canyon Boulevard. Roger Staubauch and Cypress Equities paid a reported $53 million for the 6.9 acre site last summer. According to local representatives, reservations are running ahead of expectations following a series of 'meet and greet' events the developer held in Southland locations from Laguna to Santa Barbara in mid-March. Cypress hopes to begin construction of the 1200 to 4000 square foot condo units following a planned late May sales event. Interiors of the residences may be customized by individual buyers. Prices kick off at $1.7 million and reservations may be held with a $10,000 fully refundable deposit. The finished product will be operated as Ritz Residences by Ritz-Carlton Hotels.

The "1" Hotel--In 2006 Mammoth Mountain owner, Starwood Capital, announced plans to roll out a new line of 5 star eco-friendly hotels dubbed "1". The first iteration got underway in June of 2007 in downtown Seattle near famed Pike Street Market. Mammoth's version was slated for 2008-2009 in The Village at a site across from White Mountain Lodge. Construction in Seattle has been on hold for six months according to the Seattle Times. Lenders insisted on a redesign of the project that will replace 132 condo/hotel units with 192 traditional hotel rooms. Meanwhile, the Mammoth "1" has fallen off the dance card. Lending standards for condo/hotel properties have tightened up recently due, in part, to heavy speculation in this type of property during the real estate boom. With larger down payments and more rigorous qualifying required "investors" no longer populate the launches of properties classified as condo-hotels.

Eagle Lodge--In 1998 Intrawest used the promise of a new base lodge at Eagle Express to help sell the Juniper Springs Lodge, Sunstone and the Eagle Run condo projects. 10 years later Starwood Capital announced that construction of Eagle Lodge would commence in 2009 and offered up two elevations for the real estate community's approval. One version of the 68 unit condo/hotel featured a nearly flat roof, the other a traditional sloping gable roof. According to assistant town planner, Sandra Moberly, earthwork for the 544 understructure parking will begin next summer. And it will be the traditional gable design. In addition to all skier services from ticket sales and rentals, to ski school and day care the lodge will feature a market, restaurant and ice rink.

Mammoth Crossing--Two years ago the proponents of Mammoth Crossing paid $67 million for three pivotal corners at the intersection of Lake Mary and Minaret Roads. Planned for up to 1020 residential rooms, with street level commercial and parking for 750 cars, this development will determine how the Village advances. Unhappily, Tanavista, the Crossing's first effort, misfired. Despite an "irresistible" sub $300,000 price entry point, the 45 unit quarter share fractional ownership condo project got the hook within weeks of being offered. Like other fractional projects in Mammoth it suffered from a lack of buyer enthusiasm. Undeterred, the developers are forging ahead with a project wide Environmental Impact Statement which should be completed by June according to local project manager Mark Dowd.

Mammoth Ritz-Carlton Residences

2008-01-17T13:09:00.000-08:00

On January 10 the local Ritz team held a REALTOR® orientation of the 130 unit first phase of the Ritz-Carlton Residences Mammoth. Prices originally set to shove off at $2 million, were dialed back to a cozy $1.4 million for a 1200 s.f. one bedroom "residence". Reservations will open January 30th and Cypress Equities, the developer, hopes to have 65 residences worth $200 million under contract following a late April launch at the Laguna Beach Ritz.

Of course, the property should be splendid and we all wish them well. Somewhere in the mythical Ritz ether mythical buyers lurk, Texas oilmen, New York bankers, Beverly Hills movie producers eager to gather with fellow moguls, dying to be pampered by an attentive Ritz staffer—imported no doubt, the Westin scoured the bottom of the local service labor pool and came up a few attendants short—before retiring to their multi-million dollar suites. It could happen even though I estimate that 65% of Westin Monache buyers were investors and investors are as rare in this market as competence in the Bush White House. Not to mention that fine homes are available in Mammoth for less than $1.4 million.

With luck we'll have regional air traffic by December of 2008, and as one developer put it, by the time the Ritz is built (2010-2011) the market will have recovered.