SNOW!

Mammoth Mountain is reporting over a foot of new snow on this Thanksgiving eve. That brings the season and November total to 50 inches. And it's still snowing.

The last very strong El Niño in 1997-1998 didn't get rolling until January and February. In that cycle Mammoth's November snowfall total was just 36.5 inches. So we're thinking this season could be BIG.

Remember, there is great skiing already and  cold temperatures forecast for the rest of this week will allow the Mountain to make snow around the lifts at Canyon Lodge. By Christmas lots of terrain should be open. Have a Great Thanksgiving! See you on the slopes,

RIDING THE "EL" TO HEALTH AND HAPPINESS

Okay last year's weather prediction was just a feint, a juke, a jab to set up what's coming. The Big One. The knock out blow. The Drought breaker. Mr. El Niño.

NOAA now gives the El Niño—a warmer than average expanse of the sea's surface off the west coast of South America—that's formed this summer a "greater than 85% chance" of lasting through 2015. As most weather watchers know, El Niños often produce wet winters. Take the big El Niño of '97-'98 that ushered in 20-30 inches of rain along the California's coast.

But there's a kicker. Wetter fall and winter weather is much more likely if the El Niño is a strong one. Strong is an El Niño that averages 1.5º C above normal for three months. The latest Niño index is just 1.2º C (warmer than normal). Not to panic. NOAA has been observing changes in wind patterns—a weaker westerly flow at the equator—coupled with warmer waters moving east that point to a strengthening El Niño. According to NOAA, the majority of forecasts call for this El Niño to peak at 1.5 C or higher by early winter.

The downside: we may have to endure another dry summer. Anyway if you don't own real estate in Mammoth yet, it might be  a good time to shop.