Friday, August 9, 2013

MAMMOTH REAL ESTATE OVERHEATS? SECOND QUARTER SALES RESULTS

"Housing bubble threat grows," warns Bloomberg. "Surging home sales raise new housing bubble fears," cautions CNN Money. Many real estate markets have become "frothy," the Wall Street Journal's Money Watch site proclaims.

RECENT MAMMOTH HOME SALE, $950,000
Wasn't it just last week clients were asking whether prices had hit bottom. Wasn't it just last year that some were still predicting real estate values would never come back. Frothy? 

Indeed, nearly 20% of homeowners nationwide owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Building permits issued for new home construction, while up steadily since 2009 are less than half what they were in the boom years 2004-2006. The widely followed Case/Schiller index of home values in 20 U.S. cities show prices still 24% below their 2006 peak.

Not much to fear there. What has caught the attention of economic prognosticators is the sudden, often dramatic turnaround in real estate demand in hot markets like California's that is pushing values higher. According to DataQuick, a real estate tracking firm, the median price of homes sold in June rose at the fastest year over year rate on record, a sizzling 28.5%. Further, the sale of million dollar homes in California reached the highest level in five years and, despite exceedingly low mortgage rates, a record number of homes were purchased with cash.

If the historical pattern holds true the "froth" evident in big city and coastal markets in California will soon bubble up in Mammoth. We can feel it. Listing and sales stats for Mammoth paint a picture of this percolating market.

18 homes changed hands last quarter, down 25% from the same period last year. The median sold price actually fell 8% to $604,500. But, only 53 homes are listed. None are bank owned or being sold short and well priced properties are selling quickly often attracting multiple offers.

Condos saw more excitement. Sales were up 74% from last year's second quarter. Although the median sold price dropped to $239,275 from last year's second quarter median of $251,000, a solid number of sales exceeded the properties appraised value or asking price. As a result of this strong demand just 119 condos are on the market. Two are bank owned and 7 are short sales.

Our market is in transition. Interest in Mammoth real estate is building. Look for the heat to grow.